Bitcoin’s Price is About to Achieve a Feat It Hasn’t Produced in the Last Four Years
Bitcoin’s price has been freefalling these last few weeks. As bitcoin’s bear market deepens, however, the cryptocurrency could equal a milestone it hasn’t matched in four years.
In October 2014, the price of bitcoin officially dropped in value for the fourth month in a row. Since that point, bitcoin has never had more than four declining months in a row – until today.
If bitcoin’s price doesn’t recover substantially over the next few days, then it looks like bitcoin will equal that mark. Bitcoin’s price has fallen in four straight months – something it hasn’t done since October 2014.
A negative close for November seems like a foregone conclusion. At the beginning of this month, bitcoin was sitting in the mid-$6000 range. Today, bitcoin is struggling to break above $3,800. If bitcoin doesn’t rise above $6,400 by November 30, then it will mark the fourth straight month that the price of bitcoin has declined.
The last time this happened was on October 31, 2014. On that date, the price of bitcoin had fallen for four consecutive months. By October 31, you could pick up one bitcoin for just $336.
Today, bitcoin is down more than 40% since the beginning of November. This latest losing streak starting on August 1. Between August 1 and late November, the value of the world’s largest digital currency has been cut in half.
Making the bear market even worse are the multiple bottom calls. Wall Street analyst Michael Novogratz infamously “called the bottom” back in September 2018 when bitcoin was priced at $6,000. Within weeks, the price of bitcoin had fallen to a one-year low below $5,500. Today, it’s well below $4,000.
Meanwhile, as spotted by Market Watch, 44% of investors believed that the price of bitcoin had bottomed in a September 30 study from Fundstrat Global Advisors. Similarly, 54% of attendees at a private dinner for institutional investors believed that the worst was over for cryptocurrencies.
Obviously, both of these calls proved to be wrong.
At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin is sitting at $3,727.38. Some believe this is the bottom. Others believe there is still more pain to be felt.
What does history tell us about the last time bitcoin dropped four months in a row? Let’s find out.
This is the BGCI chart…I think we put in a low yesterday. retouched the highs of late last year and the point of acceleration that led to the massive rally/bubble… markets like to retrace to the breakout..we retraced the whole of the bubble. #callingabottom pic.twitter.com/EasTBYgjSj
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) September 13, 2018
What Happened in 2014?
In October 2014, bitcoin marked four straight months of declining prices. Starting in late 2014, however, the price of bitcoin started to gain momentum.
On October 31, 2014, the price of bitcoin peaked at $345.47 after reaching a high above $1,100 in December 2013.
Starting in November, prices started to gradually increase. On November 17, 2014, bitcoin reached a peak of $409.75.
Unfortunately, that small surge subsided. By the end of November 2014, bitcoin had dropped to $381.02, only slightly above its mark on October 31.
The slide worsened towards the end of 2014 and into the early months of 2015. On January 17, 2015, bitcoin officially reached the bottom, hitting a low price of $197.24.
From that point onward, bitcoin once again entered a bull market, rising to a price of around $400 by December 2015 and then all the way to $750 by November 2016. That bull market wouldn’t subside until January 2018, at which point we entered the bear market we’re in today.
What does all of this mean for the crypto industry? It means the last bear market was a big one – and it could mean many more months of pain. Bitcoin is about to lose value for the fourth straight month. The last time this happened, bitcoin rebounded slightly in the fifth month before continuing to fall in the sixth and seventh months.
Could this happen with bitcoin in 2018? Is $3,700 the bottom? Or is there still more pain to be felt?
History tells us there’s more pain to be felt – but there’s no telling when this bear market will quit and the next bull run will begin, if ever.