Will the Bear Market Push Bitcoin Price to $3,000
In a significant turnaround from a bullish market position, Anthony Pompliano predicts that bitcoin prices could fall up to $3,000. This prediction by the Morgan Creek founder was after his recent forecast in January when he said that bitcoin price would reach $50,000 by the end of the year.
I've revised my Bitcoin outlook after spending more time digging through data than I would like to admit. I'm still very bullish, but it may take longer than anticipated: https://t.co/TYEuoBaChh pic.twitter.com/yjF0VRt5Ey
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) August 24, 2018
Changing Price Timelines
In early July, Mark Yusco, the founder of Morgan Capital Management, predicted that the bitcoin price would reach $25,000 by December 2018 before culminating in amounts over $500,000 in less than six years. However, Pompliano, states that upon further examination of more data, he reviewed his previous optimistic approach.
He stated that the parabolic bitcoin prices are taking longer than before. The first quick appreciation occurred from 2010 to 2011, while the second one occurred between 2011 and 2013. The most recent parabolic increase in price had a high peak of $20,000 and started from 2013 to 2017. Pompliano believes that if you extrapolate this trend, then it means that bitcoin will not hit another new high until late 2023.
By tracking historical market data, it shows that the bitcoin’s primary bear market in 2011 only lasted for 160 days, while the following one lasted 400 days from 2013 to 2014. Pompliano used that data as the basis of his prediction to state that the ongoing bear market will possibly run for approximately 650 days. If this new prediction is accurate, then crypto markets would need to wait until late 2019 to recover from the adverse price changes, which is significantly longer than what many participants in the market currently anticipate and could potentially cost many investors.
New Prediction Model
When asked about his earlier bitcoin price predictions, Pompliano admitted that he was wrong, but that it was vital for him always to test his beliefs and assumptions. He rebuilt his prediction model and collected better data to achieve this new prediction that suggests several unpleasant outcomes with a notable price decline in Bitcoin prices ahead. After reviewing the available data, Pompliano found that Bitcoin price would likely reach $3,000 over the next few months than anywhere close to $10,000.
In conclusion, Pompliano reiterated his belief for a stronger bitcoin price that could eventually hit $50,000, even though in the next four to five years. He advised investors to get ready for a bumpy road with regards to bitcoin prices as they conduct their individual interim research.