CBOE Insider Says Bitcoin ETF Approval Confidence is Still High, But February 2019 Timing Could Be It
VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF Approval Confidence is High, but Not Until February 2019 and It May Not Be the First
Last week, we reported that inside sources were confident the world’s first bitcoin ETF would be approved – it was just a matter of time. Those sources continue to be confident about the approval of the bitcoin ETF, although they are now cautioning the timing could change.
The sources come from The ICO Journal, which claims to have multiple contacts within the CBOE, the futures exchange seeking to list the world’s first bitcoin ETF.
That ETF would be the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust. The ETF was first submitted for approval to the SEC earlier this summer. The SEC was due to approve or deny the ETF on August 10. They chose to delay the decision on the ETF until September 2018, although they have the freedom to delay the ETF all the way to early 2019.
“We’ve gone back and forth with two sources at the CBOE over the weekend and pulled a little more intel from them,” explains The ICO Journal. “Nobody is changing their tune here, but there has been a wrinkle added to the mix that is noteworthy.”
One of The ICO Journal’s sources had previously reported that it was a 99% certainty that the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF would be approved by the SEC. That report came just days after the SEC delayed the decision on the report.
Now, the sources are echoing their previous sentiment, although they now claim the date of approval could be in 2019.
They also claim that the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust may not be the world’s first bitcoin ETF. Other funds may beat the ETF to the market. Several other submissions are making their way through the regulatory system.
The first source emphasized that there was “nothing to be alarmed about” and that the bitcoin was still expected to be approved. However, the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust might not be the world’s first bitcoin ETF after all.
“Nothing to be alarmed about, but the timing could very well be 2019. And it also could be the case that VanEck could end up being the second Bitcoin ETF approved, and not the first. The Direxion submissions are dubious at best given that they add leverage (in both directions) to an already volatile asset class. That set of five ETF’s will ultimately get denied. But both the ProShares and GraniteShares submissions have a shot at being first to market. In my view, it is a less than 50/50 shot, but a shot nonetheless. Any dialogue about VanEck being a 2018 approval may, at this point, prove to be premature. The pattern has been postponements that stretch the full length of the regulatory pathway.”
In other words, we can expect the SEC to use the full delay period – all 240 days since posting on the Federal Register – to consider approval or denial of the bitcoin ETF.
The second CBOE source quoted by The ICO Journal echoed that information, cautioning investors to expect “a rather drawn out process” to the ETF approval. It seems less likely that ETF approval will arrive in September 2018 – or even 2018 at all. Instead, the ETF is expected for approval in early 2019:
“Expect a rather drawn out process. Given the latest postponement, it is clear that every Bitcoin-based ETF has followed the same path – a long regulatory tail. Our only adjustment here is that we expect approval to occur in Q1 of 2019. Nothing else has changed.”
The core features of the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF remain the same. Investors can expect a $200,000 buy-in designed specifically to accommodate institutional investors, high net worth individuals, and accredited investors.
Ultimately, if you believe The ICO Journal’s CBOE sources, then you can expect the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust to be approved in Q1 2019 – although it may not be the world’s first bitcoin ETF after all.