Some people believe that the markets are unpredictable. Others actually believe that they can predict everything about them. Both cases are generally wrong as the Bitcoin market may have some surprises, but you can look at its patterns and have good hints about its future.
Now, some people are saying that 2019 will be a great year for cryptos. Surely, everybody says that literally every year. Sometimes, like in 2017, they were actually right, while other times, mortally wrong. I’m looking at you, 2018.
However, now we have seen an opinion that is a very interesting one. According to Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder Ventures, an investment group focused on decentralized and blockchain platforms, the crypto market moves in cycles of four years.
The Four Year Cycle Theory
The whole market lost around 87% of its value last year. 2018 was, indeed, an awful year for cryptocurrencies because of this. This meant that even the most optimistic people have concerns about the future of crypto.
Fortunately, Chris Burniske has shown to the world his theory. According to him, the industry moves in a cycle that is repeated every four years and this could help us to predict a bit what will happen in 2019.
On Twitter, he has compared two timeframes: 2013 to 2016 and now from 2017 to 2020. 2013, as well as 2017, was the year of the frenzy and of overpromises. 2014, just like 2018, saw a crash because the promises were not realistic and they did not deliver.
In 2015, the market started to consolidate again and adoption restarted in 2016. The idea is that the cycle will repeat. If 2015 was a year of consolidation, there is a good chance that 2019 might be one as well. Prices will not jump drastically, but the bear market may stop for a while and prices may even go up.
If the trend is actually right, 2020 will see a revamp of the Bitcoin ecosystem and 2021 will start with the hype all over again. If you were to believe him, 2020 would be the year to really pay attention to cryptos but you surely would not be making a bad deal if you decided to buy them now.
2019: The Year Of The Consolidation?
It should be noted that these are all just theories, though. Burniske may be right, but seeing something similar between 2013/14 and 2017/18 may well simply be a coincidence. It’s not like there is a lot of information to validate this.
However, even if you do not consider him to be right, there is some logic in the prediction when you look at what is happening in the market right now. Companies are, in fact, trying to consolidate the market now. Many companies are injecting capital in the crypto industry.
Some notable launches like Bakkt, the platform created by the Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, will be released in 2019 and we may finally see the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The decentralization believers may even talk about decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which some are set to be launched in 2019. However, they are already 19% of the exchanges in the market and account for less than 1%, so I wouldn’t be too hyped about them.
If these products are actually successful, the mainstream public may even be interested in Bitcoin again, however, this does not mean that the next bull run is near.