CME Bitcoin Futures Expiring This Friday, Gap Filling to Push BTC Price Even Lower?


  • Since launch, BTC CME futures traded 2 million contracts
  • Bitcoin price drops 3% to $9,800, the gap filling to take BTC to $8,500
  • Analyst is expecting $7,500, with trading sideways until August and then ultimately breaking down again

Bitcoin futures on the CME Group have formed several gaps during the recent bull market. These gaps must be filled in the short term and when they do the price is likely to hit $8,500.

As we know, the CME Bitcoin futures market remains closed on the weekend, indicating that the spot market fluctuations happening at the weekend are the reason behind the decline in the Bitcoin price on CME. Over the weekend, Bitcoin CME futures declined from $11,990 to $9,915.

The gaps in CME futures can play a part in projecting the Bitcoin spot market movements as each of these gaps eventually gets filled.

Bitcoin Volatility Back To March 2018 Level

Since February, Bitcoin volatility index has been constantly increasing. In July, it rose to 7%, from February’s below 2%. The last time we were at this level was in March 2018.

The highest in the past 4 years had been on January 3rd at 8.19%. However, we have come a long way from early Bitcoin years, with the highest ever 30-day BTC/USD volatility registered on June 3rd, 2011 at 16.11%.

Bitcoin Volatility on the rise since early 2019, Source: buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/

As Bitcoin volatility rises in the past few months, with weekends being the most active ones, we have come to see about 8 gaps in the just past 2 months in CME BTC futures price.

Though these gaps have turned out to be good for the price, pushing them upwards, up until now, these gaps will be filled.

Since Launch, BTC CME Futures Traded 2 Million Contracts

Bitcoin futures on the CME was launched on December 18th and since then it has traded 2 million contracts.

Right on the launch, BTC futures traded at $20,650, states trader Bit฿it, and never it traded higher since.

The Bitcoin futures on CME are cash-settled contracts, each CME Bitcoin contract has a value of 5 BTC, that is based on the reference rate which is calculated as per the spot price in four exchanges viz. Coinbase, Bitsatmp, Kraken, and itbit.

Market participants choose whether to close the contract or to roll it over to the next month, explain Bit฿it.

BTC July Contracts Expire Today

Now today, being the last Friday of the month, July contracts are expiring.

In the past, BTC contract expiration affected the Bitcoin price. Some even believe this was one of the reasons for BTC’s drop in 2018.

In the early days, the San Francisco Federal Reserve reported that the launch of CME bitcoin futures led to the fall in crypto prices.

“The rapid run-up and subsequent fall in the price after the introduction of futures does not appear to be a coincidence. It is consistent with trading behavior that typically accompanies the introduction of futures markets for an asset.”

If the gap gets filled, it is expected that Bitcoin will get back to $8,500. Analysts like Benjamin Blunts are projecting a fall to an even lower level, $7,500. He sees, BTC “trading more or less sideways until august, but ultimately break down again.”

Currently, BTC/USD is trading at $9,800, down 3 percent after climbing above $10,000 yesterday.

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