Crypto Experts Debate Bitcoin Price Predicting at Blockchain Live 2018 London Event
Blockchain Expert Panel: Possible to Predict Bitcoin Price?
Blockchain Live 2018 took place in London this week and featured various debates concerning the technology. One such debate was whether there is a way to accurately predict Bitcoin price and the prices of other cryptocurrencies.
Jemima Kelly, a Financial Times reporter, Jane Lippencott, a business development strategist at CoinFi, and Lisa Cheng, the founder of Canbex Group, all spoke on the panel.
Kelly began the discussion by explaining that she completely believes that all bitcoin price predictions fail and if they due succeed, it is due to luck. As she stated, “Everyone knows predicting future prices is a fool’s game” and she further pointed out that most of the time, predictors have incentives as to whether they are betting on long or short on the value.
Kelly also focused on her interpretation of a mismatch between the value and usability of cryptocurrencies and that both are mutually exclusive. Finally, she added that most bitcoin investors have the wrong mentality. As she discussed, “Why are you holding if you can use it? You don’t want the value to fluctuate loads.”
Lippencott responded that holding crypto is not any different from holding cash or storing it in your bank, but that “it’s just a cooler term.” Concerning bitcoin price, business development experts believe that negative speculation is related to the bear market. To her, “FUD is real and it influences the price.”
Cheng added that she believes that the absence of crypto fundamentals is what leads to unsophisticated analyzers responsible for bad predictions. She also noted that early bitcoin investors account for a majority of the market and they have incentive to swing the price by publicizing forecasts. She mentioned, “Education is necessary before investment.”
The next big question that arose is whether mass adoption is possible.
Kelly chimed in, stating that there already has been mass adoption, which peaked December last year when bitcoin was at its best. Lippencott, alternatively, stated that “mass adoption is blockchain” and added that once blockchain becomes a part of people’s daily lives, which is inevitable, bitcoin will reach its full potential.
Cheng continued that right now, she believes we are in a trough. Though she agrees that speculative interest may have fallen, if an ETF is approved, it will make an impact and bitcoin may be able to reach 9,000 by the end of the year. Lippencott challenged Cheng, mentioning,
“Why not say 20K or 100K? We don’t know, we can only speculate.”
Cheng also mentioned that one of the most important factors influencing wide-scale cryptocurrency usage is the release of the first state-backed version. But to her, Venezuela’s Petro does not count.
“When a country creates their own cryptocurrency, we see mass adoption. The Petro is problematic and cannot be used as a case study.”