Crypto Market Is Dicey, The Bullish Golden Cross Is Very Likely a Non-Factor for Bitcoin
In May, Bitcoin flirted with $10,000 a number of times but it was never able to achieve it.
Now today, the world’s leading digital currency is down 3.25% and hovering around $9,085 while managing $2.4 billion in “real” volume. Even dipping below $9,000 for a few minutes. Tether meanwhile is seeing $2.64 billion worth of USDT exchanging hands.
With the market turning red, analyst Mati Greenspan has reduced his exposure in the crypto for now.
“Things getting a bit dicey in crypto markets and stocks. Lots of uncertainty,” he said.
In the US stock market, another 2.4 million Americans filed for unemployment last week. Oil prices meanwhile are at their highest since March on recovering demand and lower US inventories.
The US Senate also passed a bill to delist some Chinese companies including Alibaba and Baidu from American stock exchanges.
Today’s red was first seen yesterday when a meager 40 BTC was moved from a wallet, not even to an exchange. What rattled the crypto community about this transfer was the speculation that this long-dormant wallet, since it was created in February 2009, could belong to pseudonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
Although there is no knowing if these some of the originally mined bitcoin were actually minted by Satoshi, as we reported it was likely they did not belong to him.
According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the movement of these coins is both bearish and bullish.
It is locally bearish because investors tend to sell near local macro tops and it wasn’t a “smart” choice.
However, old coins moving increases the realized cap of the bitcoin and the CVDD price floor model for valuation. One of the first on-chain metrics invented, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) called destruction is the coins moved * total times those coins were dormant.
“When old investors sell out of their sub $1 coins, it allows for the price floor to increase. New buyers capitulate at much higher prices,” as such bullish in long-term, said Woo.
The market sentiments are currently neutral but just like the post-2016 halving which saw Bitfinex crypto exchange hack and Etherem’s DAO hack, in 2020 we have experienced BlockFi data hack, BitMEX exchange’s system going down after getting hit with a major lawsuit (RICO), Satoshi moving his BTC FUD, and MSM dark web FUD following the halving last week.
The same as the last time, Bitcoin has taken a small step back.
Trader Credible Crypto expects ‘reclaimed support’ at 8,900-9,000 to be tested soon. But here, “bulls need to show up there if it happens,” which he expects they will.
As for the bullish golden cross, “The 50Day moving average may have just crossed above both the 100DMA and 200DMA. But at the same time, the 100DMA just cross below the 200 DMA.”
As such, this crossing of moving averages is “very likely a non-factor” for bitcoin, said crypto investor and trader Josh Rager.
Also, the last time the 50 DMA crossed above the 200 DMA, the market had an over 60% drop in price over the next month. However, this drop in February was caused by the black swan event – coronavirus.
This means, “a single indicator won't prop up the market price.”