Ether Is Not Done Rallying, VC Points to Market Structure Signaling Price ‘Heading Much Higher’
The Crypto market is “getting more emotional” with sentiments turning to extreme fear, but several catalysts work in Ether’s favor.
Nothing goes up in a straight line and keeps on going forever.
And that's what has been happening to the cryptocurrency market. The pullback that started this week was amplified over the weekend as Bitcoin price crashed to just under $42,150 after Tesla CEO Elon Musk doubled down on his strikes against the leading cryptocurrency.
“Market is getting more emotional,” noted trader CL of eGirl Capital, “def a handful of people rage quitting, maybe there's more, maybe its over soon, when things get emotional it gets harder to predict.”
The price of Ether fell to $3,125, down nearly 29% from its all-time high of $4,380. However, this crash took ETH to the price level we only saw earlier this month, about a fortnight back.
As of writing, ETH/USD has recovered to trade above $3,500.
ETH/BTC has also topped at about 0.0823 and is currently around 0.0778.
But Ether is not believed to be done rallying with all the catalysts working in its favor.
ETH basis is something to watch, yes we corrected pretty heavy without leverage, but either we top without greed on futures because this time is different, or ETH is going significantly higher, L2 in two weeks, EIP 1559 July, send pic.twitter.com/eJFbNdR843
— CL (@CL207) May 17, 2021
According to crypto fund eGirl Capital, ETH price is heading much higher based on the market structure of the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Back at the end of October 2020, when BTC price was around $13,500, eGirl capital had also shared thoughts on Bitcoin market structure and why it was heading much higher. Since then, BTC has surged over 380% to a new ATH of $65k and is currently consolidating.
Ether futures market structure reveals that stablecoins, which means going long ETH with real money, is leading the growth in open interest (OI) rather than coin margined, which means longing eth using eth, noted eGirl Capital’s latest thread on Ether.
“In addition, less coin margined OI means less convexity to the down side, and the OI on these products having been reducing in ETH terms. Meanwhile, shorts are the more vulnerable side on stablecoin margined futures, these traders -need- to long to even obtain ETH exposure.”
As we reported, throughout Ether’s latest rally, the funding rate on perpetual contracts has been extremely low, which hinted at the uptrend being driven by spot buying and not leverage. Also, OI has been growing slower than the price.
“Even though OI growth on stablecoin margined future is growing, its vastly outpaced by price growth, hinting that people are stuck on sidelines in stablecoins on futures exchanges without ETH exposure, and thus, up only.”
Since the end of April, Ether has dominated the market, which has people now speculating an increasing possibility for ETH to flip Bitcoin.