Examining the Most Overlooked Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Prediction Caveats
The invention of cryptocurrencies brought the alternative way of managing our finances in a safe, convenient, decentralized way that many have accepted with great optimism. People want to have full ownership of their assets, which is impossible while third parties manage our funds for us. When you own cryptocurrencies, it is YOU who owns them and decides what to do with them, provided that you are careful with your private keys.
However, while cryptos did bring a new way of managing funds, this is still quite a new and unexplored technology with a lot of flaws to it. Most of these flaws are likely not unfixable, although there are numerous issues with the system as it currently is. However, optimistic investors often tend to ignore some of the major problems, continuously claiming that the system is flawless, which can lead to losses.
Ignoring the flaws is not the right way to go about them, which is why we felt the need to point out five of the major ones, even though not everyone in the crypto world wants to hear about them.
1. Crypto Experts Usually don't Know More Than you do
We often hear about crypto experts giving one prediction or the other, with their opinions seemingly changing on a daily basis. This leads us to the first harsh truth, which is the fact that experts don't really know anything. Most of them are self-appointed, and while there are a few of them who may be considered actual experts, there is only a handful of them. Meanwhile, you would think that the crypto space consists of experts, as everyone has their own opinion which they try to pass on as expert advice.
These “experts” emerged mostly during the time when cryptocurrencies were really big, back in 2017. Investors and traders were hungry for predictions and an investment or trading advice back then, and those who knew a bit about crypto started providing it. The majority of them came from Twitter, and their dated accounts somehow became proof that they know what they are talking about.
The truth is that people still know very little about the crypto world and that it is next to impossible to predict the markets' behavior, which is why all expert predictions and opinions should be taken with a grain of salt.
2. You Being Attracted to Crypto is not a Rational Phenomenon
While many probably do not want to hear this, the fact that the crypto space is still attracting interest does not really make sense from the logical point of view. Instead, its allure comes simply from our own emotions. Most people who are currently trading and investing in crypto are experiencing losses due to the bearish market, which indicates that they are only here for the dream of reaching decentralization. In other words, they are trying to make crypto a reality by force.
3. Most Positive Expert Predictions are Brought
If you are following the tech news, you likely cannot find a single day without a ton of crypto-related headlines announcing, predicting, and constantly analyzing a different aspect of the crypto space. Even on social media, people are constantly posting, tweeting, and cheerleading, all in an attempt to keep cryptos on top.
In a lot of cases, people are paid to do so, so that the trend would live on, which is not a phenomenon specific to cryptocurrencies. In fact, the so-called “human bots” have become increasingly popular in recent years, with people being paid to hype about pretty much anything and anyone. Due to the fact that the hype is not real, you should be really cautious when it comes to what you believe in.
4. Decentralization May not be Achievable
Another rather unpleasant fact is that decentralization may end up being just a dream after all. Not because of the technical issues — we are perfectly capable of achieving it when it comes to the tech aspect. However, there is a big issue when it comes to what the people want, and what the people think they want. For example, people will say that they want freedom, authority, self-control, and alike. However, when they are at the bring of getting it, they suddenly become aware that obtaining it requires them taking the responsibility and having the discipline to maintain order.
This is the part where many would get scared and turn the gift of autonomy away. After all, there is probably a reason why humans always tend to organize themselves so that there are firmly established ranks and hierarchies, instead of everyone being equal to everyone else. While there is no doubt that some people are born to rule themselves (and potentially others), the fact is that the majority does not want that kind of responsibility, and they are perfectly contempt with doing as they are told.
5. Most Crypto Projects will Undoubtedly Fail
After the crypto space exploded in 2017, everyone realized that there is money to be made in the crypto trend. This is why countless new projects emerged, and while many of them already died, there are still over 2,100 living coins out there. However, most of them are weak projects that are barely keeping their heads above the water. With a situation like that, it is very likely that most of them will not make it much longer.
While there are some coins that will survive, they are in the minority, while most coins were, are, and will be just a bubble that will eventually pop. According to Bitwise Asset Management’s Matt Hougan, as much as 95% of them will likely disappear in time. While others might take their place, the fact is that most of the current coins are nothing more than hype coins, and as such, they will go away when the hype dies down. This does not mean that cryptocurrencies themselves are doomed to fail, but the majority of the coins probably are, so be careful when it comes to picking projects for HODLing purposes.