Feelings And Bitcoin: Figuring Out The True Value Of This Cryptocurrency


There are few things that are certain in the cryptocurrency industry, but the fact that consumers either have no knowledge of Bitcoin or complete dedication to it is one of those things. Since Bitcoin basically created its own industry in which to thrive, the traditional methods of valuing it are nearly impossible to apply, which means that there are not even “fundamentals” to go off of. Still, that has not stopped anyone from voicing their “feelings” about the industry, especially considering society’s current acceptance of opinions as someone’s personal gospel.

NASDAQ has specifically proclaimed to users:

“Much of what you read on valuation of BTC is nothing more than the analysts’ “feelings.” You need to understand market sentiment as being preeminent over any means of valuation, and especially over guessing.”

Weiss Ratings reposted this quote, along with a link to an article for NASDAQ, adding, “We agree 100%.” However, it is not clear how much faith that someone can put in Weiss Ratings nowadays.

Geoffrey Caveney, a financial writer, posted an article about his “feelings” on Bitcoin, saying,

“When I say there's a ‘good chance’ the bitcoin price will be below $1,000 by next year, I understand that ‘good chance’ is not a precise phrase. Here is a more complete explanation of what I mean, in two paragraphs that will not fit in a headline: If we had a guessing game, and we had to guess ‘What will be the lowest price range bitcoin trades at during the rest of 2018 and all of 2019?,’ my guess would be around ‘$900 to $1,000.’ I think it's about 50-50 whether the actual low price will be above that or below that.”

Even though the industry seemed to be filled with alleged experts and analysts not long ago, it seems to rely on guessing nowadays. However, in an article by Avi Gilburt of Nasdaq’s news website, he referenced a comment on Caveney’s post, which said,

“Bitcoin has value because we say it does. A shiny yellow piece of rock in the ground has value because we say it does. MONEY has value because we say it does.”

To get any kind of understanding about the prices in crypto, the first thing that investors need to understand is the market sentiments precedence over “guessing.” Evaluating the market is the best way to see the direction of prices, though no method is 100% faultless. Inflation rates are a bit part of the way that Bitcoin value is assessed, but that principle alone is subjective.

The need to determine the fundamentals of Bitcoin and the rest of tokens is evident in the industry. Mining costs are not necessarily a good way to determine these prices, especially considering that miners are still waiting to get rewarded for their work still. Transactions on the blockchain do not seem to make a difference, considering that the transactions are decreasing lately. The decision to be bearish about Bitcoin seems the most logical option for some investors, though the problem could come when transactions decline faster than the actual price.

Realistically, there is not much of a reliable method of finding the true value of Bitcoin. Guessing will not work, and the predictions are wildly inaccurate most of the time. However, based on Gilburt’s information, tracking is possible, which might be the only way to follow along accurately.

He said,

“Yet, being able to track market sentiment through Elliott Wave analysis has been a wonderful way to be able to track price and seems to be the most accurate (and maybe the only) way to track the Bitcoin market.”

This opinion may be slightly skewed, considering that he is a technical analyst for Elliott Wave, and he founded ElliottWaveTrader.net.

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