Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee Says $25,000 BTC Price Still Viable in Bitcoin’s Year Long Bear Market
Tom Lee is optimistic about another bitcoin bull. The veteran market analyst has worked on Wallstreet and is possibly familiar with how the markets work. Over the past year, Lee has remained optimistic that bitcoin will reach another bull period and that it will surpass the $25,000 mark, even though there have been bearish conditions recently.
Lee is currently the managing director of Fundstrat Global Advisors and he sat down for an interview with BlockchainChick to discuss his market predictions in-depth. The interviewer, Heidi from BlockchainChick, posted on twitter about the interview, stating:
I had the pleasure of speaking with @fundstrat who graced me with his presence and knowledge on what he sees when considering the data on BTC and ETH price trends and predictions… among other things! Check it out: https://t.co/XXtD1TzTqq #bitcoin #ethereum #priceisright pic.twitter.com/pIm0l6j5yH
— Heidi (@blockchainchick) October 20, 2018
Heidi asked Lee if he still expects that bitcoin will surpass $25,000 by the end of the year. Lee stated, based on his multi-decade experience in various markets, “People are too bearish. . . What happens is people get bearish because it makes sense. You know the market conditions have been terrible and we are under our 200-day moving average.” He further noted that Fundstrat issued a report to its clients discussing bitcoin’s poor performance when it establishes itself under the 200-day moving average.
“We just published a report this week that pointed out to our clients that when Bitcoin is under its 200-day, it only goes up 50% of the time in the next six months. But when it’s above its 200-day, it is up 80% of the time, so the trend implied by the 200-day is obviously very important.”
Fundstrat’s analysis may be contrary to Lee’s position. He continued to express optimism, rather than pessimism. Lee’s research indicates that by the end of the year, the break-even cost of mining bitcoin will rise to about $8,000 to $9,000. This could lead to an increase in bitcoin, since it trades over two times its break-even point.
Lee also brought up an interesting point, telling Heidi that investors usually have the psychology of giving 100% probability to the negative at the time the bottom is nearing. He also noted that there is a high chance that bitcoin will move upward, rather than capitulating to new year-to-date lows. There is also a specific hurdle that investors must cross. As Lee stated:
“Until people are convinced that there’s a bottom, like there are a chicken and an egg, you can’t motivate people until the [bottoming[ event happens.”
You can see the full interview here: