Hedge Funds Significantly Increase Their ShorHedge Funds Significantly Increase their Short Bitcoin Positionst Bitcoin Positions
- Significant CME gap still sitting, “institutional money drove this thing up, and they can drive it back down”
- Institutions in play, BTC price dropped about 20% since hedge funds increased their short positions significantly last week
On July 10, Bitcoin price retook $13,000 after going down to $9,600, the drop from 2119 high at about $13,900.
Throughout the second half of the last week, BTC price continued moving downwards. On the weekend, it took a deeper drop to $9,855. Though we have made it above $10,300, analysts see more pain ahead.
Bitcoin's 50 day EMA is right at 10k. If we break below that, we could see a major fall. Also, the NVT is finally flashing a sell signal again. The 50 EMA is very important right now. I'm expecting it to act as tremendous initial support, but soemtimes BTC DGAF.
— MAGIC (@MagicPoopCannon) July 14, 2019
However, market analyst and trader, Benjamin Blunts says, if the current move ends up creating a triangle, we will be making new highs.
This upside move could be expected as economist and trader Alex Kruger reports of Bitcoin oversold signal triggers. This he says has triggered 9 times in the past 1 year and “has always marked a local bottom.”
My oversold $BTC signal just triggered on the 4H chart. In the last 365 days it has triggered 9 times and has always marked a local bottom (not counting cases in which signals fired consecutively). Past performance not indicative of future results. pic.twitter.com/17mrqiCMq3
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 15, 2019
On the flip side, Blunts says this is a flat correction that would take us to $9,000. But this won’t be the end of the drop. A move down to $9,000, according to him, would open the doors for the possibility of the move being the beginning of a larger and more complex correction that per the chart shared by him could take us to $7,200.
Institutions In Play
On one side we have a significant CME gap still sitting in the BTC price chart. But at this point, they could turn out to be just a meme. As a matter of fact, these gaps have been bullish for BTC price, so it’s hard to tell if BTC price would be affected by those.
However, as trader Moon Overlord points out, “institutional money drove this thing up, and they can drive it back down.”
On the other hand, the latest Commitment of Trader report from the CFTC shows that hedge funds have increased their short positions significantly, just before we went to $13,000. Since then, Bitcoin has dropped about 20 percent, after registering a heavy sell-off this weekend.
Latest Commitment Of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Hedge Funds had significantly increased their short BTC positions as of July 9th. BTC is down ~20% since after a heavy sell-off this week-end. Who said "smart money"? pic.twitter.com/6vcDxenf1r
— skew (@skewdotcom) July 15, 2019
But there is no need to panic. Bitcoin is still in its early stages, with less than 1 percent of the population having exposure to Bitcoin. An enormous part of this market is still unpenetrated.
Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million, this means down the line, millions of people will be owning Bitcoin though the majority will only have a fraction of the digital asset. This will only add to BTC value in the long term.
Bitcoins’ scarcity puts it in the league of gold as stated by the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during his testimony, and bitcoin’s market value currently represents less than 3 percent of gold’s $7 trillion market cap.
For Bitcoin, it’s the sky’s the limit.