Historically September Records Losses, But Will This Time Be Any Different?
August is coming to an end, and Bitcoin is trading around $48,000 and Ether around $3,200.
With just two days left in the month, the leading cryptocurrency is locking in just over 16% gains while being up 66.21% year-to-date. As for Ether, it had a 26.4% uptrend in the month, 40.60% in the quarter, and 333.50% in the year, so far.
Comparatively, gold which is traditionally a safe haven asset is barely in the green for the month while being down 4% YTD, at $1,814 per ounce. In comparison, the US dollar recorded returns of 1.65% and 2.83%, respectively.
When it comes to the stock market, the S&P 500 managed to go up 2.60% in August despite hitting a fresh all-time high at $4,513 on Friday. According to data analytics company Skew, the S&P 500 is also up roughly 5% for the quarter ending September and a mere 20% in 2021.
The summer saw a downtrend for cryptocurrency prices which fell during May, June, and most of July due to seasonal effects as investors sold in May and went away.
— McKenna (@Crypto_McKenna) August 30, 2021
But since July low, crypto assets have recovered sharply, up more than 60%, with some altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Terra (LUNA) hitting new ATHs. SOL -11.07% Solana / USD SOLUSD $ 138.47
-$15.33-11.07% Volume 5.49 b Change -$15.33 Open $138.47 Circulating 296.97 m Market Cap 41.12 b 1 h Bitcoin Price Flash Crashes to $5,400 on Solana-based Oracle Pyth Network Causing Liquidations 6 h JPMorgan says Ether Is Overvalued at Current Prices and DeFi’s Institutional Adoption Is Above 60% 8 h Bitcoin, Crypto, and Stocks Dip While USD Rips as Money Flows into the Private Market LUNA -7.81% Luna Coin / USD LUNAUSD $ 0.01
$0.00-7.81% Volume 0 Change $0.00 Open $0.01 Circulating 1.71 m Market Cap 11.95 K 1 w Crypto Market Dips and Over 165k Traders Get Liquidated for More Than $890 Million 2 w DeFi Rallies Towards New Highs As Multiple Layer 1 Blockchains Amaas $50 Billion in TVL 2 w 76.8% of SOL Supply is Locked to Secure the Network and Not Available for Sale in the Market
Now, the market is waiting for the return of money in September, as the well-known financial-world adage goes. But according to monthly returns of Bitcoin, next month is not looking so good, with average returns showing a loss of 7.8%.
sept seasonality is usually trash
— Josh Olszewicz (I will not dm you) (@CarpeNoctom) August 29, 2021
But given that June and July were down months and August has only started to recover, positive sentiments can further accelerate in September.
Not to mention, NFT mania is here with the floor price of digital art surging and bringing retail with it into the crypto sector. While NFT is driving the mainstream crypto adoption, institutions haven’t stopped coming either.
“There’s generally been pretty positive crypto sentiment recently: NFTs have helped lead the revival, and the crash from May is further in the rearview mirror,” said Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of crypto exchange FTX.
Additionally, all the gains made in NFT and altcoins are expected to flow into the leading cryptos, sparking euphoria in the market.
fooo's guess: mid sept ish we see a bounce, led by Bitcoin probably and this goes until october
late oct or early nov, alts, led by defi alts, go nuts
december everything pumped massively and eth steps in for a final hurrah
distribution and maybe another nft cycle at the top https://t.co/qPWSpJ7MlG
— fooo (@bitcoinpanda69) August 29, 2021
According to Yoni Assia, founder and CEO of eToro, it is a “generation buying movement” and cited a confluence of events, massive fiscal stimulus, and rock-bottom interest rates worldwide. Combining this with the rising inflation as economics reopen, it’s “leading a lot of people to look for various types of investments,” Assia said.
“There’s no doubt that there’s a lot of excitement in crypto.”
“You can definitely see it within the numbers in the industry, whether it’s looking at total volumes or looking at growth of companies,” he said, adding that “we’ve seen a lot of exuberance in the market.”
A recent survey of eToro also found that about a quarter of its 6,000 investors surveyed own crypto, which rises to nearly 50% for the younger demographics. The survey further found that the average investor was also set to increase their crypto allocation with “significant” interest in altcoins in the coming months.
“With all of this money floating around, we should not be surprised that there are people paying exorbitant amounts of money” for digital assets, said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.