Increased Bitcoin Hashpower Could Mean Simultaneous Halving for Both BTC and BCH Networks


For more than a while now, the mining speeds of both Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) have been significantly different. However, for some time, there has been a considerable rise in BTC’s hashpower which has been reducing the BCH supply lead. At the current rates, it’s very possible that if the BTC hashpower continues to rise, the halving for both forks could happen around the same time.

Bitcoin Cash Mining Left BTC Far Behind

After the BCH fork which happened in 2017, BCH has been unable to sustain BTC’s ten-minute block generation time. Regardless, the team of developers for BCH have always wanted to make the BTC and BCH levels as parallel as possible. However, apart from being parallel, speed has also been pertinent and more than a few different algorithms have been deployed for just that purpose.

After it forked back in 2017, BCH maintained the Difficulty Adjustment Algorithm (DAA) along with BTC which slightly altered the parameters for the difficulty of mining after every 2016 blocks. A little later, BCH decided to adopt the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment (EDA). While still keeping the DAA, the EDA was created to diminish mining difficulty up to 20 percent whenever all the blocks mined in a 12 hour period are below 6.

The implementation of EDA, however, began to create issues for BCH because it surpassed BTC by hundreds of thousands of blocks. After this happened, the EDA was discontinued and DAA, after a slight alteration, was sustained. Regardless, the block difference persisted and all the increase in blocks, hashpower and mining speed directly meant that the BCH halving will precede BTC’s by more than one month.

BTC and BCH Could Still Halve Almost at the Same Time

According to a series of tweets posted on Sunday the 14th of July, the current trajectory could still be altered. Co-founder of Coinmetrics.io, Nic Carter noted some of the problems explained above, specifically pointing out that Bitcoin mining was well behind that of BCH by about 123,000 coins in November 2017. However, this difference has been considerably narrowed down to about 73,000 coins.

According to the tweet:

“Fun fact: when BCH forked, mining was “too slow”, then “too fast” and since the EDA, mining has lagged Bitcoin. So BCH was 123k coins ahead of BTC, but new BTC hashpower has narrowed the lead to 73k.”

Expressing that the difference in coin number of both networks can be referred to as “days ahead” in the issuance schedule, Carter then said the difference has been on a continuous decline and now, BCH is only 41 days ahead.

The difference in the number of coins can also be expressed as “days ahead” in the issuance schedule. BCH is currently scheduled to halve 41 days before BTC.”

Carter then concluded that if Bitcoin can maintain a minimum of 239 BTC every day, both networks would eventually halve at the same time.

“To sum up, BTC is narrowing the supply lead by 239 BTC/day, so if BTC keeps outpacing difficulty, the halvings actually should happen around the same time.”

As long as BTC’s rates don’t drop, this projection is imminent. However, what’s to say that something wouldn’t change?

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