Is Bitcoin Out of the Woods Yet or Are We Looking for Deeper Losses?
This week has been somewhat of a whirlwind.
For the next two days, the leading digital currency traded around $10,500. Then early on Thursday, BTC crashed further to $10,150 level only to end the day higher, going as high as $10,848.
“A strong surge in bitcoin, which seems to have been caused by a timely short squeeze, is seen showing a strong push off that technical level and massive green gains in the rest of the coins as well, moves that are only loosely reciprocated by the traditional markets,” noted analyst Mati Greenspan in his daily newsletter, Quantum Economics.
However, the analyst says it is still unclear if we’re out of the woods yet, in the short-term, or will be going in deeper.
Now, on Friday, we are trading just above $10,600. At the time of writing, BTC/USD has been trading around $10,615 in green, managing $1.68 billion in ‘real’ trading volume.
Markets are experiencing a pause in the larger trend. This pause is driven by monetary and fiscal policy, and election fears. It is very likely monetary and fiscal easing will resume after the elections. Continued dollar weakness post elections is thus a high odds trade.
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) September 25, 2020
But analyst DontAlt is “not at all interested in buying spot here,” as he believes we will be eventually trading lower than the current price.
“That said, I could see markets rally off of bearish sentiment (& good looking charts) beyond current highs,” said the analyst explaining how on the monthly, the price is retesting support and “as long as we don't crash in the next couple days, that's typically bullish,” the same as the weekly, where we are currently retesting $10,600 support and holding it until the week ends is “typically bullish.”
Overall, SWM is the top gainer of over 82%, while Acute Angle Cloud is the biggest loser of 36%, as per Messari.
Another bout of volatility could come from the almost 90k options contract expiring today. Heading into the event, bitcoin option total interest is sitting at an all-time high.
BIG EXPIRY 25 SEP 08:00 UTC 💣
88k $BTC options are set to expire this Friday of which 62k (73%) is held at Deribit.
Currently max pain is USD 10500 pic.twitter.com/fDHYb1Unab
— Deribit (@DeribitExchange) September 24, 2020
In the futures market, meanwhile, the OKEx long/short ratio that fell to an all-time low of 0.65 before the sharp price drop on Monday, suggesting many retail investors took advantage of the sell-off, has been hovering below 0.8 most of the week.
Thursday’s rally, however, sent it to as high as 0.82 before correcting to settle around 0.75. “It looks like yield farmers hedging their BTC positions via derivatives after moving their assets to Ethereum were not impressed by the price rally,” noted OKEx.
However, that is all short-term – the correlation with the stock markets and the subsequent uncertainty due to upcoming elections. In the long-term, the flagship cryptocurrency is still following its parabolic curve that would take us to new highs.
But like the previous cycles, the next peak would take time, which according to many, may occur either by the end of next year or 2022.
— Jonny Moe (@JonnyMoeTrades) September 24, 2020
Adding to this long-term bullishness is the number of active addresses on constant rise, reaching 1 million. At the 2017 peak, these active addresses were at 1.13 million and are currently around the level last seen in January 2018.
Even more exciting is the fact that the number of new Bitcoin addresses that are signaling a growing network, currently at 500k, increasing since 2018 bottom, aiming for a late 2017 high of just above 800k.