Is it the Calm Before the Storm? Bitcoin May be in the ‘Early Innings of a New Bull Market Cycle’
Bitcoin is stuck and trading sideways for the past two months now.
Despite the dull May and June, the world’s leading cryptocurrency ended the second quarter of 2020 with 42% gains thanks to the recovery from the March sell-off. In comparison, the S&P 500 index surged about 20%, capping off its best second quarter since its creation in 1957.
In 2020, so far, BTC/USD is in the green by 24.85% while trading at $9,225.
The volatility in the market, however, remains at extremely low levels, and there has been very little change in the overall trend as such “the sense that the market leader could make a major move at any moment is palpable,” states OKEx in its analysis.
However, on the daily chart, the 30-day moving average is about to cross down through the 60-day moving average to form a bearish crossover, which will create resistance. According to the exchange,
“the market has been surprisingly quiet for several days — possibly the calm before the storm.”
Early innings of a new crypto bull market cycle
— PlanB 🔴 (@100trillionUSD) July 1, 2020
According to Pantera Capita’s letter from last week, the model puts BTC price at $115,000 by August next year.
For now, altcoins are outperforming the leading digital currency and is expected by the digital asset manager to continue to do so on and off over the “remainder of 2020.” They expect the bull market to mature in 2021 and altcoins to gain a significantly larger market share relative to bitcoin.
“We believe that we’re currently in the early innings of a new crypto bull market cycle that should run until at least mid-2021.”
It will be the “tsunami of money” that will push the price of fixed-quantity things like bitcoin, which, according to Pantera Capital, seems “inevitable.” The law of supply and demand will work itself out if a trillion more paper dollars enter the market.
Moreover, bitcoin was created in reaction to the money printing, but the unprecedented money printing this time is of a larger magnitude.
Meanwhile, retail and whales are busy accumulating.
Current number of #Bitcoin addresses holding at least:
$1 USD: 22.2 million
$10 USD: 15.4 million
$100 USD: 7.7 million
$1,000 USD: 2.9 million
$10,000 USD: 700,000
$100,000 USD: 170,000
$1,000,000 USD: 13,000
— glassnode (@glassnode) June 30, 2020
Gold already on the way to new highs
Gold, on the other hand, was already enjoying a rally and topped $1,800 an ounce. This has been its best quarter in four years.
“The demand destruction wreaked upon the U.S. and global economies and then the resulting unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus-response here and abroad is the primary driving force behind gold performance this year,” said Jeff Klearman, portfolio manager at GraniteShares.
Low-interest rates, a resurgence in coronavirus cases, uncertainty about global economic recovery, increased stock market volatility, civil unrest in the US, global trade friction, and the upcoming US presidential election are other factors driving the demand for the bullion as a haven.
Goldman Sachs said the metal could climb to a record $2,000 an ounce over the next 12 months.