Is the Bull Cycle Over with Retail REKT & Institutions’ Taken Profit?
Bitcoin price keeps above $37,000, Ether around $2,450, and the total cryptocurrency market cap at about $1.6 trillion, still down more than 35% to 45% from their ATHs recently.
While the market has recorded an uptick from its lows, the market is cautiously bullish, with some seeing it as the beginning of a bear market.
Risk currently persisting in the market revolves around clarity with China restrictions, which are not limited to the crypto sector and comes just ahead of the politically sensitive 100th anniversary of the ruling communist party on July 1st.
As for the implications of CFTC’s comments on DeFi, they are not expected to play out soon as things of regulatory nature take time to play out.
“The El Salvador news and Saylor bid might just be enough momentum to kick off risk appetite in an otherwise extremely fearful market,” noted Jason Choe, founder of The Blockcrunch Podcast and a partner at crypto fund The Spartan Group.
So, is the bull cycle over?
“In my view, this question is somewhat moot because judging by the magnitude of the correction (>40% for total mkt cap), we are already in a bear market,” said SpartanBlack, Partner at crypto fund The Spartan Group.
He noted that this cycle brought institutional participants into the market, and they are “likely to take profits earlier and more frequently,” which means drop probably won't be as severe as past cycles, making crypto markets less volatile over time but also “the returns from the asset class also become less spectacular.”
According to Arthur Hayer, former CEO of BitMEX, it is simply a phenomenon of “Sell in May, Go Away!” At least until fall, that is. He wrote,
“Currently, the marginal fiat wampum going in and out of crypto originates in the US and EU. The plebes woke up and discovered inflation is real, and it’s time to do something about it. But the summer is here.”
The Northern Hemisphere will be on the beach…enjoying life or spending their dog money on earthly pleasures, he noted, adding: “Either way, they will not be sitting in front of a screen pushing buttons.”
However, interest in crypto is still here, with regulators describing it as an asset class, though volatile and highly risky, and institutions bringing in the investment.
SpartanBlack also noted that they had the “largest capital inflow” in their hedge fund in May since its inception. Their DeFi venture fund also raised $110 million. He added,
“The strong interest extends into this month. Earlier this week I had a call with 20+ PMs who work for the biggest asset management firm in Singapore.”
They are having conversations with family offices, high net worth investors, bankers, including Goldman partners whose interest in the asset class is broad base and goes beyond retail investors, looking to commit capital with a 1-3 year view or longer.
When it comes to the retail sector, while those who came into the crypto space earlier this year might have maxed out their capacity but “there are still a lot of people who don’t have crypto exposure who see the recent correction as a massive opportunity to finally get some exposure.” Spartan Black added,
“Crypto has caught the mainstream interest now that people are no longer asking if it makes sense to allocate to the asset class but rather when, how and how much?”