Long Time Crypto Leaders Joe Lubin And Jimmy Song Start a $500K Bet Regarding Ethereum’s Future


The bet, which was awaited for a long time, will see the duo betting around half a million dollars in the current crypto prices (which are going up, by the way). Jimmy Song described the bet as “a maximum pain kind of bet” and affirmed that the idea initially started last year during Consensus 2018.

Basically, both of them made an onstage agreement in which Lubin told Song that the could bet any amount of BTC that the decentralized apps of Ethereum would have a number of users that could be considered “non-trivial”.

Just before the conference, Lubin was accused of weaseling out of the bet, which is possibly part of the reason why the two crypto leaders decided to actually move the bet forward.

The Bet

Finishing the discussion that was started last year, the two made the bet, which will be settled in four years. If Ethereum is doing great, Song will pay Lubin 810.8 ETH, while if the dapp economy of the system is not pretty great, Lubin will give Song 69.74 BTC.

In order for Lubin to win the bet, ETH will need at least 15 different dapps in which there are at least 10,000 daily users and 100,000 monthly users in at least six of the 12 previous months.

The bet was described as “maximum pain” because the side which will lose will actually lose a lot of money, especially if the price of the tokens continue to rise as time passes. In fact, the bet started last year, when the amount of money was decided. At the time, both of them bet over $500,000 USD, but Ethereum lost much of its price since then.

At the time, over $560,000 USD was bet using ETH, now Song only owes $168,000 USD in case he loses.

Song also affirmed that he wanted the bet to hurt so he would not donate the money, but just keep it all if he won.

While the terms o the bet were originally decided last year, the bet was not official until now. The two have been working on a document in secret and have decided that they need a public arbiter now for the dispute.

Song defends the idea that only Bitcoin is really useful for the blockchain world, while Lubin obviously believes he is wrong. He has affirmed that Bitcoin has uses which are too narrow and that decentralized apps will eventually flourish and become an important part of the crypto world, just as people suspected back in 2017.

They have also clarified more on how the specifics of the bet would work, what kind of transactions would be considered legitimate and how to measure success. It seems that the bet is finally solid and we’ll see the results in four years now.

Betting On The Future of Ethereum

We all know that the bet is very dangerous for both sides. There are plenty of chances that Ethereum will be able to complete its goals but, at the same time, there are simply chances that they may have a hard time doing it.

Song affirmed that centralized technology will continue to be dominant because it is faster to develop and easier to use. Because of this, he is not a big believer in the potential of the decentralized web as envisioned by people like Lubin and Vitalik Buterin.

He affirmed that dapps only exist to take money from people who are either gullible or greedy and that this is basically what Ethereum has done so far.

Lubin, in response, affirmed that it is possible to create many successful apps using Ethereum and that the other man is wrong. He acknowledged that, even if he loses the bet, the ecosystem will be strong in four years.

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