Markets Flip from Bulls to Bears, Even a 40% Drop isn’t Unlikely
After keeping steady for weeks, bitcoin volatility is back.
On June 10th, Bitcoin had a fake breakout only to drop to $9,000 yesterday. The digital asset moved downwards in line with the US stocks that posted losses of at least 5.3%, the biggest one-day losses since mid-March.
The heavy losses came despite the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone while the same day coronavirus cases surpassed 2 million in the US.
Even the traditional safe haven asset gold failed to hold onto its gains. According to trader and economist, Alex Kruger, the correction could be driven by FOMO or the increase in new COVID-19 cases but the fact is “market was experiencing peak euphoria and was due for a pullback.”
“Given the magnitude of the rally, it would shock me if we had a one day sell-off and that’s it,” said Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Andrew Slimmon.
Today, US stock futures are bouncing and bitcoin is also moving towards $9,500 on a ‘real’ volume of $2.75 billion.
Fed announces more inflationary monetary policies! Buy #Bitcoin!
*SPY-BTC correlation resumes*
— Jonny Moe (@JonnyMoeTrades) June 11, 2020
This means, the two markets might take time to decouple from one another. But the good thing is, Bitcoin, the risky asset reacting at all to the Fed, is a clear sign that “either institutional money is playing a much larger role in the market these days, or retail traders are getting more savvy and reacting more to their surroundings,” wrote analyst Mati Greenspan.
“Retraces are short and vicious”
Currently, BTC/USD is trading at $9,465, with a loss of 3.25%. Following the leading digital currency, altcoins crashed even harder.
Some of the worst chop I can remember on $BTC
Price action before the dump at $6K vibes, although that was a downtrend, this not so much
— moon (@MoonOverlord) June 11, 2020
Despite the correction, the price is not really looking good. Those who feel bitcoin going down to support is unlikely because that would be too big of a drop, “that's not how Bitcoin works. Retraces are short and vicious. Crashes even more so,” said trader DonAlt.
Even a 40% drop isn’t unlikely “it's happened before, it'll happen again,” he said.
During the bull run of 2017, while making its way to the all-time high of $20,000, the flagship cryptocurrency recorded several pullbacks between 36% to 47%.
In the bear market of 2018, bitcoin registered a correction of 45% to 50%. In 2020 itself, we had a 67% drawdown.
“Highest probability long play buy pullback 9370 to 9580-9600. Highest probability shorts 9580- 9700…H1 under both 50 and 200 ema so bears in control on lower time frames. Expect a lot of range and fakeouts before price decides a clear trend one way,” said Trader Arjun.