NBER Study Reveals Google Search Trends And Bitcoin Price Have Correlation
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) frequently assesses different factors that can impact the financial growth in the country. Based on a recent study that they performed, it seems that the cryptocurrency market is predominantly based on the attention of consumers. This is directly contradictory to the way that traditional financial markets.
Cryptocurrencies are subjected to many other market factors that are specific to their industry, rather than behaving as the financial sector predicts. The report says that the factors that could sway cryptocurrency include the momentum of the growing market and the attention the platform receives from potential and existing investors.
This is described in the report as, “time-series cryptocurrency momentum at the daily and weekly frequencies.”
The paper had two authors, who were both from Yale University. Those authors were Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski, and they have said that,
“the markets do not view cryptocurrencies similarly to standard asset classes.”
They discussed the price trackers on CoinDesk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP as their main, and potentially only, source of data on the market. However, they considered multiple years of performance, using those details to compare the returns that people receive with fiat currency, metal, and economic factors.
For the most part, the information they found were barely relevant, apart from the trend of price increases. The market seemed to be moved by even a small daily return. The price increase could even be predicted for up to six days with this information, while a weekly return was enough to alter the movement in the market for nearly a month.
The study also includes information that the researchers gathered from sources like Google and Twitter. They concluded that simply seeing a surge in searches for certain keywords, like “bitcoin” or the name of another platform, would trigger a boost in the token price, even though the change was rather small.
Typically, with one increase of a certain keyword, consumers were looking at a 2.5% increase on the token. However, for search terms that were more derogatory, like “bitcoin hack,” the market would see a similar drop in the price of Bitcoin.