Odds Are In The Bears’ Favor As Bitcoin Is Back on the Downslide; Losing 4.55% in Last 24 Hours
Bitcoin is on a downslide today, moving as low as $9,231. Currently, BTC/USD is trading around $9,350 with a 24 hours loss of 4.55% while managing the daily ‘real' trading volume of $1.4 billion.
Bitcoin in red has the altcoins incurring losses as well, but for now, the downslide among the altcoins isn't that harsh. Since early May, Bitcoin's dominance is actually on a downtrend, going from nearly 69% to 64.65%, which has been the result of altcoins pumping while leading cryptocurrency continues to range.
Now, according to market traders, the odds are in the bears' favor. But this doesn't mean, bitcoin will crash to $4k levels as seen in March 2020, $7,000 makes for a somewhat reasonable bear scenario as it would test the first breakout area, said trader Nik Patel.
Thoughts on bearish scenarios being discussed atm for $BTC.
Imo, makes no sense at all to go anywhere near $4k again. $7k retest? Absolutely possible. pic.twitter.com/pkZJmP2Rr7
— Nik Patel (@cointradernik) June 23, 2020
Trader DonAlt is expecting to see bitcoin to drop to $8,600 sometime soon.
“Big picture we're still trading in a trading range that had a false breakout to the upside resulting in a down move,” he said. “Makes shorts overall more attractive than longs.”
Analyst – The Cryptomist – is of a similar opinion, as she points out two possible scenarios, both of which are bearish.
According to her, a rising wedge would see us going to $10,000 only to drop while a descending triangle means a significant drop is coming soon.
— TraderSZ (@trader1sz) June 23, 2020
However, as per the MVRV ratio, bitcoin's “upside potential remains large.”
Market Value to realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicates whether bitcoin has been trading above or below its fair value relative to its realized price. A ratio between 1 and 2 means BTC could be undervalued while a higher ratio implies overvaluation. Currently, the MVRV ratio is at 1.6, remaining at relatively low levels despite the recent price surge. Also:
Been wondering when #bitcoin might see its 200 DMA (blue line again) and was considering support around $8,000.
It seems like the DMA is rising lately and with it our next support line. pic.twitter.com/Wp4QvYkW7g
— Mati Greenspan (tweets are not trading advice) (@MatiGreenspan) June 24, 2020
Meanwhile, in the US stock market, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite set the 5th record this month and 21st record of the year, its best winning streak since 1999. Big technology stocks are the ones that are leading much of this rally.
“There's a lot of money on the sidelines, and as the country reopens, as the economy recovers, that money will be forced back in,” said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
However, fresh highs for tech stocks while volatility remains elevated and may pose trouble for the S&P 500 index, according to BTIG LLC. On Tuesday, while Nasdaq reached a record high, fellow American indexes S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 failed to hit their own new ATH.
US stocks more commonly record gains during periods of low volatility or risk reversal after blowouts of the kind seen during March and April, it said.
And Bitcoin is correlated and cointegrated with the equities market. Anti-China measures and an FED temper-tantrum caused the last three dips in Bitcoin and S&P 500, and coronavirus said analyst PlanB.