One Month Post BCH Split, Is Bitcoin Cash ABC or Bitcoin SV Winning the Forking War?


Breakups are hard, at a personal level ask anyone who has loved and lost, at the national ask India and Pakistan. Thus no one had any illusions about how this story would unfold when it was announced that there was a faction that did not agree with the latest patches being worked on by the BCH team. The bloodbath that has since ensued has filled up pages upon pages of the interweb. We are taking a look at the past, present and future status of the two distinct networks, Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin SV, that have come to be since the bitcoin cash blockchain underwent a hard fork on November 15.

Once Upon a Time: Before November 15

Bitcoin cash has an interesting mechanism that requires a bi-annual software upgrade. This means that, by design, the blockchain must ‘fork’. This was primarily to induce developers and miners to work together and reach a consensus about the general direction of the coin and its upgrades. Once the upgrades were discussed and agreed upon it would lead to a software upgrade and a ‘soft fork’, where the chain remains intact.

Until the latest iteration, this was the norm. However, this all changed when the updates backed by Roger Ver and Jihan Wu were strenuously opposed by the likes of Craig white and Calvin Ayre. It quickly became apparent that no agreement was forthcoming and tensions reached a boiling point. The environment got more toxic and warlike when one side threatened takeover attacks and the other side started building infrastructure to prepare for any prolonged hashwar.

Thus the chain experienced a bitter divisive hard fork. After a bitter struggle, the later camp conceded defeat and formed its own coin. Now both BCH and BSV have been trading on most public cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet due to mitigating circumstances post the mid-November fracture, there is no clear winner.

The Story Now

Trading at a respectable $600 at the start of the month BCH crashed to $420 on Nov. 14, subsequently nosediving to $250 in the coming days, after the split. The newly formed cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin SV, were trading at $295 and $90 respectively. For most of November, it seemed like a no contest. BCH ABC was the distinct price leader, with a commanding lead over its counterpart.

However, that distance has narrowed significantly, so much so that BSV was ahead for a time on Dec. 6. It is still up for debate whether this is due to the general market sentiments, which saw the broader crypto market lose about $80 billion, in recent weeks or that the public is yet to decide whose vision to back wholeheartedly. At the time of writing, both are neck in neck, BCH is ranked 8th with a value of $81.7 while BSV follows close behind at 9th, valued at $74.9, per website Coinmarketcap.

A Technical Forecast

Undoubtedly the success of either coin hinges on the actual usage and hash power, one can always make predictions based on analysis. Technical data on their respective price charts throws up some expected and unexpected anticipatory movement of the assets price.

First BSV has had a risk-averse pattern that had taken hold of the currency since the end of November. The trending support levels are $74 and $54. Floating at the former for the time being, it is not altogether unlikely that the latter support value will be hit. In having said that there could always be a slight rally to stabilize conditions, owing to the oversold conditions seen on the intraday relative strength index (RSI).

BCH (the erstwhile BCH ABC) has been steady but always on the down, losing as much as 80 percent. At the moment the uncertainty around support levels nearby makes it hard to suggest any safe fall back line or predict positive price movement. Although there is room for optimism as there are indications of oversold conditions for this coin, suggesting an eventual corrective bounce.

Like all breakups, time heals all wounds. When the greater crypto market regains the strength, it will have a positive impact on this recently cleaved blockchain. What is more important is for the communities to put this behind them and work towards the common goals of making blockchain more viable and accessible to the general public

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