Bitcoin seems to be stuck in a rut as the leading cryptocurrency drops 0.55% to $9,385. But the “real” volume stays extremely low at just $1.3 billion.
For the first time since February, this volume dropped below $1 billion.
But not just retail volume but institutional volume across exchanges is down.
A prolonged period of low volatility consolidation
Bitcoin futures at the CME group hit their lowest level yesterday in more than a month to $110 million from $328 million at the beginning of this week. Bakkt hasn’t seen $50 million in the past month and has fallen to $15 million.
When it comes to bitcoin options, CME that has been constantly making records has also been seeing a decline since mid of last week, falling as low as $882k from the high of $66 million on May 28th.
The same downtrend can be seen on the bitcoin options traded on Deribit, LedgerX, and OKEx. BTC option activity yesterday was also heavy on the call selling side.
Open interest meanwhile is growing on bitcoin options, at a much faster pace than bitcoin futures’, as per Skew. Just last week, OI on CME’s bitcoin options hit an all-time high.
With halving behind us, “bitcoin's price has entered a prolonged period of low volatility consolidation, it seems that interest in trading the world's number one digital asset has fallen somewhat,” wrote analyst Mati Greenspan in his daily newsletter.
As we have been seeing, the millennials have taken a liking to stocks, especially those from the companies in bankruptcy or no revenue.
Unlike trading activity, bitcoin is at its all-time high relative to its social activity. “Increasing NVTweet Ratio may suggest BTC is now more driven by institutional trading as market cap is increasing faster than social volume,” said The TIE.
While the trading activity across the board is weak, bitcoin holders are taking this as an opportunity to buy some sats.
According to Glassnode, holders spent 154 out of 170 days of this year accumulating bitcoin. They have increased their positions by about 233,000 BTC.
The Bitcoin Puell Multiple has also dropped back into the green “buy” zone after about three weeks. In the long-term, these levels below the 0.5 line have been historically excellent entry points for investors into bitcoins.
As for the price, it’s anyone’s guess where it’s gonna go next. For trader CryptoGainz, currently, it is looking like a “bullish reclaim and a re-test of demand.”
“Imo it’s more likely that btc will moon without going below 8k vs seeing a retest of the yearly open at 7.1k,” he said.