- S2F predicts $100k May 2020-2024 average
- $50k is a “more conservative” figure, Bitcoin price will be above and below $100k but will always go back to the S2F model line, “like the drunk and his dog”
Bitcoin is having a good year having spiked over 33% in 2020 to date. We are currently trading near $9,850, very close to touching the $10,000 level.
Arcane Research points out how the historical trend predicts $11,900 as the BTC value, meaning we are still 20% away from that. However, the popular stock-to-flow model is almost aligned with the current price.
Although the long-term growth trend targets a way lower price of around $13,000, the S2F model predicts bitcoin price at about $100,000.
$100k is May 2020-2024 average
Popular analyst PlanB who first used the Stock-to-flow model to determine BTC price says people misunderstand that the S2F model predicts BTC price at $100,000 by May 2020, the month of bitcoin reward halving.
Previously, on a podcast, PlanB said this new all-time high which will be 400% higher than the 2017 bull run at $20,000 is expected to hit by Dec. 2021.
S2F actually “predicts $100k May 2020-2024 average, like the chart shows,” clarifies PlanB.
2020-2024 will be basically on average $100k in the same way 2016-2020 was on average $8,000.
BTC price follows S2F model like the drunk and his dog
In a Tweet, he further clarified how the first article he wrote in early 2019, the price predicted was $55,000. “The original model on monthly data (Mar22) says $55k, but a new model on yearly data $100k. Your choice,” explained the analyst.
$50k is a “more conservative” figure for the price but in his personal opinion, PlanB believes “We will overshoot $100k (and undershoot after ath).” Bitcoin price will basically be above and below this level but always eventually will go back to the S2F model line, “like the drunk and his dog,” he said.
And If Bitcoin is unable to do that, the analyst said, the model will be false.
USD will be the one that will fail
If the Bitcoin price’s cointegration breaks with the S2F model, the model will be falsified, however, PlanB says it’s hard to predict when that will be the case. Dec 2021 he said, “is an estimate (for easy communication) (…) until something better comes along.”
“Eventually all models are replaced by better ones,” but the analyst believes it would be the fiat, US dollar that will fail as “it makes no sense to have Zimbabwe like debasement risk in a next gen global economy.”
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 24, 2020
“Zero flow and infinite S2F/value is in 2140 .. in 120 years. Long before that, USD will break (model is BTCUSD). Also, I would be happy if the model predict next 1, 2 maybe 3 halvings (i.e. 10 yrs),” he further explained.
So, Bitcoin is just getting started and it’s not too late to jump on the BTC train as we have a really long way to go.