Prominent Analyst Says Alt-Season Not Guaranteed & No Way Before 2020
- Altcoins turn green, BTC dominance takes a hit
- Experts skeptic of a alt-season, Willy Woo doesn’t see it happening till end of 2019 / start of 2020”
- Long term altcoins HODL is not a “great idea”
Till date, Bitcoin is up over 186 percent in 2019 and just 47 percent down from its all-time high (ATH). Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is trading in the green at around $10,550.
Altcoins, on the other hand, has been deep in red, with 12 cryptos among the top 25 cryptocurrencies down 90 to 97 percent from their all-time high.
Since Bitcoin first started pumping in April, altcoins haven’t been able to register a similar momentum. In the last few months, altcoins suffered a great deal more. No matter Bitcoin’s movement, altcoins have been only going downhill.
However, in the middle of this week, altcoins turned green.
Bitcoin SV is the biggest gainer with 15.30 percent followed by Tron, up by 11.73 percent, at the time of writing.
The total market cap is still below $300 billion at $288 billion.
Bitcoin dominance, as result has also taken a hit, dropping from 69.7 percent on July 15 to the current 68.08 percent, however, it has gone up from 67.3 percent on July 18.
Market analyst and trader, Benjamin Blunts points out how BTC dominance is edging closer to breaking the key uptrend. He further expects it to break within the next few days.
A decline in the dominance of Bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market is indicative of positive altcoin performance.
Long Term Altcoins HODL Is Not A “Great Idea”
However, according to on-chain analysis, Willy Woo, an alt season might not be happening this time at all but if it comes, it won’t be until the end of this year or the start of 2020.
Per one of his alt-season indicators, though he says crude and imperfect, A bullish cross of the 365d moving avg of [alt-coin market cap / BTC/USD].
“Alt-season is not guaranteed, if it happens, I can't see it happening till end of 2019 / start of 2020.”
The key thing to look for in the indicator, he says is the steady and sustained bull run in Bitcoin with strong on-chain volume. This he explains creates a low volatility band in BTC/USD due to buying pressure muting sell-offs.
However, he warns that long term HODL of altcoins is not a “great idea” because they rarely ever performed long term across the full bull and bear cycles. But there are a few exceptions like Ethereum that have been able to achieve this.
Experts have repeatedly called out that this time the bull run if different, further speculating that alt season might not come this time and even if it does, only the ones with potential will join the bull run.