- The halving “will cause significant stress” – BitMEX Research
- “My personal view is that we’ll see bitcoin hit $100,000 before December 2021” – Pomp
Just over a month is left in bitcoin reward halving which according to Anthony Pompliano, host of The Pomp Podcast will be like “rocket fuel” for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
The bitcoin reward halving occurs every 210,000 blocks or 4 years that will see miner flow to be cut down in half from 1800 BTC per day to 900 BTC per day. This halving will also see the scarcity-based stock-to-flow to double from 27 years to 54 years.
The Morgan Creek Capital Management co-founder likened this to gold miners cutting their supply by half.
According to Pompliano, while quantitative easing would push gold's price to the $2,000 to $2,500 range, it won’t be a material increase compared to bitcoin’s.
“Over the next two years, I think that it will have hundreds of percent of appreciation, given the quantitative easing and the volatility it brings,” said Pompliano.
“My personal view is that we’ll see bitcoin hit $100,000 before December 2021.”
Blockstream founder and CEO Adam Back came up with another term for this event, “quantitative hardening.”
He explained how central banks have restarted QE programs to tackle the impact of coronavirus on the economy. QE is a tool used by central banks to inject money into the economy and allows them to create money which they then use to buy government debt.
The aim of QE is to boost spending and investment in an economy by firing up the money printer.
Unlike this, bitcoin with a limited supply of 21 million BTC ever, will have a supply shock.
“Bitcoin halving is “quantitative-hardening,” fiat undergoing lots of politically driven quantitative easing. Bitcoin supply algorithm starts quantitative hardening next month,” said Back.
Impact of Halving
According to BitMEX’s latest research on Mining Incentives, when the halving occurs, the network hash rate may decline by 30% to 35%.
However, BitMEX’s estimate is based on the assumption that the BTC price won’t change, all miners are rational, and a significant proportion of miners aren’t operating at a loss. But with the ongoing heightened volatility, it's to be seen how miners and the market will react.
In March, after reaching its all-time high this month the hash rate already dropped 45%, after the price of bitcoin crashed. However, BitMEX feels, the halving
“will cause significant stress. On the other hand, given the actions governments have taken all around the world in order to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, many other industries will also be going through a challenging period at the same time.”