Satoshi Nakamoto Grand Reveal Party On or Before January 1, 2020: Will a Bitcoin (BTC or BCH) Swap Happen?
Satoshi Nakamoto Grand Reveal Party On or Before January 1, 2020: Will He Swap BTC for BCH?
The identity of Satoshi Nakamoto continues to be a question mark over the crypto community. However, if some stories are to be believed, then we could be approaching a grand reveal party for Satoshi Nakamoto in the near future.
According to a trust established between Craig Wright and Dave Kleiman, Satoshi’s bitcoins are locked away until January 1, 2020.
The trust is secured by something called the “Tulip Keys”. Kleiman and Wright both hold the Tulip Keys. Kleiman is dead and it’s unknown where his key is. Wright, meanwhile, is very much alive. The keys are set to expire on January 1, 2020, which would presumably allow Craig to access Satoshi’s fortune of 1.1 million bitcoins on January 1, 2020 or later.
Here’s what it all boils down to: if you believe that Wright and Kleiman created bitcoin, and that Wright is the man behind the Satoshi identity, then we could be preparing for a grand reveal party for Satoshi Nakamoto on January 1, 2020. This is the date that Satoshi’s coins will be permitted to move for the first time in over a decade.
Wright, to date, has failed to provide adequate proof that he is Satoshi Nakamoto.
There are also questions about the legitimacy of the trust he established with Kleiman. The Kleiman estate is suing Craig Wright for $10 billion, claiming he fraudulently sold his “friend” shares in an Australian company in exchange for Kleiman’s stash of bitcoins. There’s some questions over whether or not this trust is legitimate at all.
There’s another problem: the PGP keys listed in the trust are provably backdated. It’s alleged that Wright set the clock on his computer to a previous year to make it look like the keys were from an earlier period. Yes, that works – but you can get caught. A good writeup of the PGP key backdating issue can be found here.
There’s also a far more serious problem: it’s possible that the coins mentioned in the Kleiman v. Wright lawsuit don’t belong to Wright, Kleiman, or Satoshi Nakamoto at all. In fact, according to various analyses posted online, the coins belong to Mt. Gox accounts and random bitcoin whales with no connection to Wright or Kleiman. It’s alleged that Wright combed through a “rich list” of bitcoin addresses when adding wallet addresses to the court case. You can view a more detailed writeup of the issue here.
Of course, if you ignore all of those issues, then it’s possible to believe that Craig Wright and Dave Kleiman have a fortune of 1.1 million bitcoins stored between them, secured in a trust until 2020.
These bitcoins are worth billions of dollars. Since being mined in 2009 and 2010, the bitcoins have been locked in a trust secured by keys. Those keys are set to expire on or before January 1, 2020.
If that’s the case, then it makes sense why Satoshi has never been able to prove his identity. Wright might legitimately be Satoshi Nakamoto, but he’s been unable to verify that because he has no control over Satoshi’s bitcoins – or anything else that would uniquely prove him to be Satoshi.
All of that could change on January 1, 2020.
Will Satoshi Swap BTC for BCH?
Wright – who may be Satoshi Nakamoto – is one of the most prominent BCH supporters.
BCH, however, continues to be the significantly smaller chain by hashpower and value. It has about 10% of the value and hashpower of the BTC network. It’s derided as “BCash” by BTC supporters.
There’s something crazy that could happen in the future, however: if Satoshi’s coins do become unlocked on January 1, 2020, then Satoshi could have the power to choose which version of bitcoin reigns supreme.
Satoshi could singlehandedly create “the flippening”, for example, and cause the price of BTC to plummet and the price of BCH to skyrocket.
Nobody has ever sold 1.1 million bitcoins in a short period of time. The closest we’ve come is at the beginning of 2018 when the Mt. Gox creditor was selling thousands of bitcoins over an extended period of time.
If Satoshi Nakamoto is Craig Wright, and Wright believes in BCH over BTC, then it’s feasible to see Wright swapping Satoshi’s BTC for BCH. It would be a surefire way to create “the flippening” in a single day.
Of course, the other thing to remember is that Satoshi’s bitcoins can be either BCH or BTC: anyone who held bitcoin private keys before the August 1 fork holds both chains. However, it wouldn’t make sense for Satoshi to transfer directly into BCH. It would make more sense to “cash out” on BTC, depressing the price, and then buy back in BCH.
This could have its own set of problems: if BCH has 10% of the value of BTC, and Satoshi sells his BTC for BCH, then Satoshi could end up owning 10 times as much BCH as he does BTC. This would make Satoshi the largest stakeholder on the BCH network, which would introduce its own set of problems.
Stay Tuned for January 2020
Ultimately, everything above is speculation. It also rests heavily on documents presented in the Kleiman v. Wright court case. Those documents indicate a trust was established between Kleiman and Wright securing 1.1 million bitcoins until January 2020.
However, it’s unclear where those bitcoins are, or if they belong to a trust at all. It’s possible that the bitcoins never belonged to Satoshi Nakamoto. The wallets listed in the court documents don’t seem to have any connection to Satoshi.
There are interesting times for discovering the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. We’ll keep you posted as the mystery continues to unfold – but we may only be 15 months away from discovering the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto.