S&P 500 Can Drop Another 25% to 50% to Make New Lows in 2020; Bitcoin Will Follow
Yet again, we have started the week on a green note, with bitcoin trading around $6,250, up 2.25% in the past 24 hours. These gains came after bitcoin fell to about $5,830 last night. Although the digital asset is holding $5,800s, the real level bitcoin needs to hold according to trader and investor Josh Rager is $5,100 to $5,300s. Also, we are not far from where we started last week.
At the beginning of last week, BTC/USD was just under $5,900 but in the following days, we climbed close to touching the $7,000 level on several occasions only to fail to do so. We have seen an increment of 8% in Bitcoin price this past week.
However, the price of bitcoin has recorded a negative performance of 29.24% in the past month, down from $8,650, although up over 62% from mid-March low at $3,850.
SPX Making New Loss Bad for Bitcoin
Yesterday, while S&P Futures and Bitcoin have been enjoying a mini pump, gold had a mini dump.
When it comes to S&P 500, during the financial crisis in 2008, after breaking below the 200 WMA (Weighted Moving Average), S&P 500 went back up over 9% only to fall another 49%, noted Rager.
Currently, the S&P 500 has rejected the 200 WMA after retesting it from a 20% rally over the past week. As such, it is expected S&P 500 will continue down to make new lows in 2020. And “if SPX sees new lows, the price will have a negative impact on crypto and on Bitcoin.”
Bond market veteran George Goncalves is also of the same opinion as he said if the market tracks 2008-2009, the bottom is at least a month away, either late April or early May with more pain ahead, a decline of 25%.
WEEKs=MONTHs Comparison: History doesn't have to repeat (and policymakers are surely trying to prevent it) but it can rhyme. In a continuation of the prior 2 charts, below I blend them, but compare wkly vs mthly data. If we track 08-09, the bottom is still at least a month away. https://t.co/d8aKaBgDmV pic.twitter.com/JPZ63ij6C5
— George Goncalves (@bondstrategist) March 27, 2020
Alex Sanders, founder, and CEO of Nuggets News said,
“Downside likely for stocks & crypto. Classic rising wedge. Weekly resistance marked. 1M jobless claims in California?! Aussie economists predicting 10% unemployment by end of June. I'm predicting it by next week. Are new investors entering crypto? I'm not convinced.”
Some relief possible because of decoupling
On the weekend, stock-index futures fell, pointing to losses on Wall Street today, as the number of coronavirus cases and death continue to rise. Investors are also bracing for data regarding employment, confidence, and ISM activity figures that have a high correlation with GDP to underline the economic turmoil of the pandemic.
Bitcoin's price action in April is going to be a battle between Chinese Bulls and American Bears, since China is almost back to normal and US is only going to get worse on the COVID situation.
Will be interesting to see who has the upper hand, going to be one hell of ride.
— Anondran (@AnondranCrypto) March 29, 2020
Bitcoin is not following the stock market tick for tick any longer but the crypto asset is still trading with risk.
As economist and trader Alex Kruger notes, Bitcoin may be the only asset outside of crypto, that is back to the levels where the Federal Reserve launched its “nuclear missile” of stimulus.
“It failed to follow stocks and break-up last week, and did a 360. Not very encouraging,” said Kruger.
If we take a look at Bitcoin individually, the daily movement suggests another move lower.
“BTC still is following stocks, even though not as perfectly. It will eventually decouple. Thinking higher with stocks early this week, then lower,” said Kruger.