Stock-to-flow Model Proponents “Claim Victory” in 2020: Predicts Legal Expert Jake Chervinsky
- Stock-to-flow model puts predicted market value for Bitcoin after the halving at $1 trillion dollars
- PlanB’s updated model puts the BTC price lower at $50,000 from $100,000
- Last decade brought BTC to only 1% of the world, the next will bring it to half of the world – on-chain analyst Willy Woo
Jake Chervinksy, the General Counsel at Compound Finance has made a number of predictions for the Bitcoin.
Although they are pretty generic what with the Bitcoin halving to occur and numbers to go up significantly which could either be before the halving or after, he sees stock-to-flow proponents to “claim victory.”
The stock-to-flow model was first used by PlanB to determine the Bitcoin price. In March 2019, the analyst explained that gold has the highest SF at 62 and silver has 22, which makes them monterey goods.
Bitcoin currently has an SF of 25 that will double to 50 with this halving in May 2020 that will put it very close to gold.
This model PlanB said at that time puts the predicted market value for Bitcoin after the halving at $1 trillion dollars. This means one BTC would be worth about $55,000 which is to be known if it will be in one or two years after the halving.
In October last year, the analyst said Bitcoin should be over $100,000 before Christmas 2021.
However, the updated model puts the price lower at $50,000 as he explains,
“I used the original formula btc=0.4*sf^3 fitted on monthly data, with lower 2020-halving prediction ($50k). My personal favorite formula is btc=0.18*sf^3.3 fitted on yearly Oct data, with higher prediction ($100k). A matter of taste IMO: conservative or aggressive.”
#Bitcoin halving .. 4 months to go 🚀
IMO halving is priced in correctly and markets are efficient, in the sense that few people (10%) know, understand and believe S2F model, and most people (90%) don't know S2F, don't understand stats&math behind it, think demand is missing etc pic.twitter.com/Z9nBPmRBvK
— PlanB [Jan/3➞🔑] (@100trillionUSD) January 1, 2020
Once stock-to-flow proponents get a win, Chervinksy expects the “detractors claim correlation & cite confounding variables.”
However, this argument he projects to keep on going on and then have a “rinse and repeat in 2024,” when the next halving will occur.
In the longer term, commentators have been expecting BTC to hit a million. No, matter the top BTC will hit, even after eye-popping 9,000,000% gain in the past decade, Bitcoin has only started.
This decade was bitcoin just warming up.
— Square Crypto (@sqcrypto) January 1, 2020
As on-chain analyst Willy Woo says, “This last decade brought Bitcoin use from a handful of cypherpunks to 1% of the world. The next decade will bring us to half of the world.”
Bitcoin, he says does a 2x per year as a baseline and 4x in bull markets and also 2x growth per year.
Live Bitcoin (BTC) Price:
1 BTC/USD =$56,547.5906 change ~ -2.46%