Ten Years Ago, Famous Early Bitcoin Contributor Made the Most Wild Bitcoin Price Prediction
A forum post from the early days of Bitcoin is going viral on Crypto Twitter.
The post was from Harold Thomas Finney, who was an early Bitcoin contributor and also the one who received the first bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto, pseudonymous and mysterious creator of the Bitcoin software.
A cypherpunk, Finney had said at that time that the problems of loss of privacy, more centralization, and creeping computerization can be targeted by using the computer as a tool to
“liberate and protect people, rather than to control them.”
In his post from January 10, 2009, he talked about how interesting the bitcoin system is in the way that it can be configured to allow only a certain maximum number of coins to be ever generated.
The idea he said is that the amount of work needed to generate a new coin will become more difficult as time goes on.
However, the immediate problem with bitcoin as is with any new currency is how to value it, he contemplated.
“Even ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins,”
Here, he makes an “amusing thought experiment,”
“Imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.”
As per this, he puts the value of one Bitcoin at $10 million.
And this was about a week after the genesis block on January 3rd, 2009.
The value was calculated on the basis of total worldwide household wealth estimated to be in the range of $100 trillion to $300 trillion at that time.
“So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute time may be quite a good bet, With a payoff of something like 100 million to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim, are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about…”