This Bitcoin Cycle is ‘Double Pump Bull Market’ like 2013; BTC Hits $38,000 After Solid Gains Yesterday
Bitcoin has reached yet another ATH above $38,300 and rising – quickly.
In spite of this more than 113% uptrend in less than a month, “this rally is warm but not yet overheated,” noted on-chain analyst Willy Woo.
As this rally continues, the market is realizing that instead of following 2017 this cycle might be more similar to 2013 one. This means we would have a “double pump bull market” and in the first cycle, BTC had quintuple pumps. BTC 0.94% Bitcoin / USD BTCUSD $ 40,156.16
$377.470.94% Volume 33.86 b Change $377.47 Open $40,156.16 Circulating 18.77 m Market Cap 753.73 b 18 h A Shift in Momentum: Binance Yields to Regulatory Pressure, the Definition of HQ Changing for CZ Too 20 h US Lawmakers See All the “Flashing Warning Signs” of Cryptocurrency Putting USD at Risk 20 h Big Institutions Are Buying ETH for the First Time, Over 25% of Supply Already Used in Smart Contracts
“BTC double pumped in 2013; a huge capital inflow. ETH double pumped in 2017; also a huge capital inflow. BTC 2021 is facing institutional inflows. Double pump seems like what happens when large inflows are injected into a smallish asset,” said Woo. Even trading desks are working and recruiting in anticipation of a prolonged bull run.
The current rally is “far from done,” because the latest buying has been driven by long term holders with the coins moving from liquid (active traders) to the illiquid (HODLers). And this is why the chances of BTC trading under $20k again are very low.
“The size of market corrections should diminish sharply with increased institutional adoption,” noted trader and economist Alex Kruger.
In a Parabolic Phase
In the traditional markets, the dollar edged higher but is still below 90, hovering above its lowest levels in about three years.
However, with Democrats winning control of the US Senate, the way for possibly the largest fiscal stimulus under Joe Biden has been cleared. Also, the markets were unperturbed by the chaos in Washington after Trump supporters stormed the US capitol on Wednesday.
“The key narrative is that we should see higher inflation on the back of stronger fiscal stimulus after the Democrats gain control of the Senate,” said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING in London. “In the longer-term, the implications for the dollar on higher inflation should be negative.”
However, for stocks, Bitcoin, and other risky asset classes, this will be a net positive. JPMorgan Chase actually forecasts $146,000 per BTC in the long term.
The total crypto market cap hit $1 trillion this week with Bitcoin accounting for two-thirds of cryptocurrency market value.
Bitcoin $BTC is redefining the concept of "overbought." Bull markets become and remain overbought. Major bull markets become overbought majorly. Historic bull markets become historically overbought. Red arrows mark midpoints of parabolic advances pic.twitter.com/OZB7IBXPbg
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 7, 2021
“The market is more mature with bigger buyers. Keep in mind though that we’re in a parabolic phase and they do top out,” said Vijay Ayyar, head of business development with crypto exchange Luno in Singapore.
Meanwhile, the number of active BTC addresses is fast approaching the all-time peak. According to Flipside Crypto, about 88% of all Bitcoin supply, up from 44% last Feb., are currently held in accounts that have been active in the last six months.
With over 2.1 million accounts active in the past week, some people are taking advantage of this surge in price to take profits.
“We have seen many whales waking up and buying, and many investors who bought in 2017 near the peak finally ‘thawed’ and are active again,” said Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance told Bloomberg.
“Compared to 2017, the biggest difference we see is that people are far more active now. If they were just testing the water in 2017, they are really moving significant portions of their net worth into crypto now.”