This Indicator Suggests Bitcoin at the Beginning of a Bull Market
- Bitcoin Unrealized Profit is at a healthy level, that is similar to the beginnings of past bull markets
- Despite Bitcoin losing 16% of its value last week, whales and long-term bitcoin holders are not selling their BTC
Bitcoin price might have lost 16% percent of its value last week and recovered some of the losses back, but the market hasn't topped yet.
According to the unrealized profit of bitcoin, we just might be at the beginning of a bull market. Relative unrealized profit is the total profit in USD of all the coins in existence whose price at realization time was lower than the current price normalized by the market cap.
#Bitcoin Unrealized Profit is still at a healthy level, showing no signs that the market has topped.
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 2, 2020
This indicator was at its highest at just above 0.85 in June 2011. In April 2013, it yet again reached 0.82 before dropping to 0.30 in Sep. 2015.
During the last bull run, in Dec. 2017, Bitcoin Unrealized Profit jumped to 0.77 only to drop to 0.32 in Feb. 2019. On Feb. 24, the bitcoin unrealized profit was at 0.463.
Bitcoin HODLers Holding their BTC Tight
According to yet another indicator, coin days destroyed, the whales and long-term bitcoin holders aren’t off-loading their bitcoin amidst the coronavirus scare. On-Chain data suggests both are sitting “firm and tight” on their bitcoin, said crypto investor and researcher Cryptokea.
The sell-off recorded last week was on par with prior bull markets and nothing extraordinary has been registered yet.
The metric Coin Days Destroyed (CCD) measures the total HODL age of bitcoins moved on a given day which is calculated by multiplying those coins with the number of days they are held.
It becomes supply-adjusted CDD, when adjusted by the total supply of bitcoin. If long term bitcoin holders sell larger than usual portions of their holdings, this metric jumps “noticeably.”
But currently, the selling is “on par with prior bull market sell-offs,” especially in comparison to the periods around the reward halvings, which is coming in May.
Previously, he noted that bitcoin’s bull cycle, bottoms, and tops fluctuate around halving dates in an “almost equal ratio.” And though history never repeats itself, it does often rhyme.
“If this relationship were to hold true, we still have more than 570 days of bull market ahead of us, with a cycle top coming in around Sep 2021.”