“This is a Bear Market,” says Economist Warning “High odds halving won’t be bullish”
- Extremely bearish analyst predicts “an epic meltdown into halving that nobody expects”
- Though bearish, the majority of CT does not expect $3,000. Trader sees $14k once this correction completes
- More pain ahead if hash rate growth continues unabated as many miners will capitulate
The cryptocurrency market is slowly turning green after seeing the bloodbath for the last two days. As Bitcoin hovers above $7,000, a few altcoins have started rising. Maker is leading the pack with over 19% gains followed by Matic (18%), Tezos (10.20%), BAT (8%), Augur (7.40%), Stellar (4.32%), Cardano (3.60%), and IOTA (2.79%).
After losing 21% of its value and crashing to the six-month low this week, Bitcoin is currently trading at $7,200 thought it turned out to be good for Bakkt which made another ATH at 2728 BTC.
Daily summary of Friday's Bakkt Bitcoin Monthly Futures:
📈 Traded contracts: 2728 ($20.30 million, +66%) (New ATH 🚀)
🚀 All time high: 2728 (11/22/2019)
💰 Open interest: $1.75 million (+29%)
— Bakkt Volume Bot (@BakktBot) November 23, 2019
$6,400 is the Level to Watch
This crash in BTC price has turned some analysts extremely bearish who are now calling for a drop to $3,000. Analyst Magic might be projecting “an epic meltdown into halving that nobody expects,” but the majority of the Crypto Twitter (CT) is not expecting such a big drop despite turning bearish.
Trader Credible Crypto says while we are still going down, it won’t be as low as $3,000. Once Bitcoin completes this correction, which will happen before $3k, the next stop would be $14,000.
$6,400 is actually the level analyst and traders are expecting Bitcoin to reach. Market analyst Benjamin Blunt says, “evidently max pain was straight down,” but we can still move to another leg lower. Though we can still make a new low, it all depends on the $6,400 level that needs to be watched.
More pain ahead if hash rate “growth continues unabated”
The world’s leading cryptocurrency might be down more than 48% from its 2019 high of $13,900 but we are still up 90% YTD.
However, earlier this month prominent analyst Willy Woo shared that Bitcoin is in a “blow-off phase” — a prolonged consolidation inside a macro bull market. The BTC rocket ship, he said will take time to take off.
The second phase of the bull market, he had said will start when Bitcoin takes over 2019 high that won’t be happening until 2020. In the short term, meanwhile, Bitcoin is “bearish.”
This sentiment is shared by economist and trader Alex Kruger who says the price action states, “this is a bear market” but as he mentions, “a bull/bear market is like a breakout”
Yesterday, the price set a local bottom at $6,785 but more pain could be on the way as Kruger says “many miners will capitulate if hash growth continues unabated.”
The hash rate of the Bitcoin network is currently down about 25.5% at 85 Th/s from the all-time high at 114.3 Th/s set on Oct. 23. However, prominent analyst shared on Twitter on Nov 23 that the hash rate is back above 100E.
This bearish momentum has the economist not expecting much from the halving as well. From the supply perspective, Bitcoin reward halving is a bullish event but it can have a “very negative short term impact” on the BTC price as this may increase the miner flows.
Also, “Massively high expectations around it makes it thus bearish,” and Woo has already warned not to expect the price to repeat past halvenings.
“High odds halving won't be bullish,” Kruger said.