Treasury Bill Yields Turning Negative Is “Mega Bullish for Bitcoin,” Says Macro Trader
Global stock markets surged higher on Friday after central banks around the world unleashed a torrent of stimulus measures to cushion the shock from coronavirus (Covid-19). With US stock futures sharply higher, Wall Street is expected to have yet another big swing.
Asian stocks closed with gains while European markets were on track to their second positive session in a row today.
The rally came after central banks including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and European central banks announcing huge new injections of funds into financial markets.
After closing with modest gains on Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1% and the Nasdaq Composite ended 2.3% higher. Now, today the Dow futures jumped 4%, Nasdaq 4.5%, and S&P 500 futures gained 3.4% signaling another green day for Wall Street.
According to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, markets are “very oversold” with much “forced selling” going on.
“We’re at the levels of ’08, of ’87 crash, 1970, even 1929, 1930,” he said, “So you can count almost, on one hand, the times that we’ve been this oversold.”
The fastest, sharpest decline in Treasury yield
Earlier this week, government bond yields cascaded to record lows amidst the liquidity issues in a sign of frightened investors flocking to safety.
“It’s the fastest, sharpest decline we’ve ever seen. It’s been contagious across all asset classes — bonds, credit, commodities, you name it,” said Timmer.
Last weekend, the Fed slashed interest rates to between 0 and 0.25% in response to the coronavirus outbreak. It’s “unbelievable,” said billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
The US Treasury bills dipped below zero as those maturing in one or less months are being seen as more like cash as they are easier to trade as “People are desperate for cash,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.
“What you are seeing today is an example of a flight-to-safety on a massive scale,” said Jones.
While the yield on the one-month Treasury bill maturing in April slipped to minus 0.003%, those maturing in May fell to minus 0.020%.
Bullish for Bitcoin
Treasuries yield falling into negative territory has macro trader Dan Tapiero, co-founder of Gold Bullion International bullish on bitcoin.
Negative interest rates have arrived in the US! 6mo t-bill at -2bps. Means you need to PAY US govt for 6mo cash deposit. Rates to go much more negative to weaken dollar. This is confiscation and it is bad but it needed for now to stabilize system. Mega bullish for #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/mwgEhnXKsD
— Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) March 19, 2020
Trader Mr. Anderson also believes the next high bitcoin won't have any “bubble excuses’ but “It will happen in the face of currency wars & a negative-yielding environment, & unlimited QE. When it happens it will introduce the world to BTC.”
In a massive move up, Bitcoin is flying today, going as high as $7,139, up 60% from Monday’s lowest point of $4,445.
Just like bitcoin took a hit of about 50% in about two days, the same way bitcoin has recovered 85.4% of the losses since hitting the low of $3,850 last week.
“I can not express how bullish I am on bitcoin. We are at risk of losing the entire system right now. I know they will find a way to save it but all trust is lost. Gold guys/girls – you’ll be fine too. It’s just that BTC has bigger upside, by far but is riskier than gold,” said Raoul Pal, the CEO and founder of Global Macro Investor.