US Dollar Is Getting Smacked Around; Bitcoin Expected to Pull a Gold Move
In the crypto market, volatility is in, and prices are surging. Bitcoin is keeping above $18,000 and gaining market share with its dominance index topping 67%.
But the same cannot be said of the traditional market as things are pretty flat and volatility down. Stocks are consolidating while bonds have been unchanged.
This has been until now.
On Friday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin decided to let go of several of the Federal Reserve's emergency programs under the CARES Act on Dec. 31.
As a result, US Treasury yields declined with 10-year bonds slipping to 0.836% and the 30-year to 1.5%.
The US dollar, which has been testing its lows lately, halted its week-long slide on the news of Mnuchin telling the Fed to return the money earmarked for pandemic lending to local governments, nonprofits, and businesses.
The Fed, however, pushed back on Mnuchin’s decision, saying: “The Federal Reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.”
The greenback has been dropping for straight sixth sessions; the slide was further spurred on by reports on Thursday that US Senate republican leaders will be resuming negotiations on another coronavirus stimulus package. Talks on COVID-19 relief meanwhile led to a bounce in stocks.
Ever since the rally in March, the larger trend has been downward in the US Dollar. From the high of 103 in mid-March, the USD index has fallen to 92.
“If the dollar continues much lower than it is now, we will need to urgently buy more bitcoin. Within the currency markets, since the beginning of November, it's clear to see it's getting clobbered,” said analyst Mati Greenspan.
For now, Bitcoin is still nearly 10% away from the all-time high, and in the short-term, it is a “pretty good resistance.”
“I’m afraid it’s probably going to do what gold did. It got to $2,000, and then that’s been consolidating in a bull market since,” said Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg Intelligence strategist.
But that is in the near future; by the end of the next year or two, McGlone expects BTC to add another zero to its price, i.e., 180,000.
While painting a bullish picture, the strategist also covered that the leading digital asset is becoming a “digital version of gold” whose volatility is declining to the point that it’s the lowest ever versus gold,” unlike every other asset whose volatility has been on the increase.