The US stock market tumbled on Tuesday after a series of negative news permeated the market.
Markets have been calm on the reports of a plan to re-open the economy. But Anthony Fauci, nation’s top infectious disease official said reopening the states too quickly could “set you back on the road on trying to get economic recovery.”
However, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Tuesday that if the shutdown persists, business failures will be on a grand scale and there will be a risk of going into “depression.”
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the economy will need more fiscal stimulus if the unemployment rate continues to rise while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned of a “gradual, muted recovery.”
There are also plans of negative interest rates with Trump and Bullard seeing it as a good option while Kaplan says it would impact intermediaries and money market funds.
As long as other countries are receiving the benefits of Negative Rates, the USA should also accept the “GIFT”. Big numbers!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 12, 2020
The gross domestic product had a 13th quarterly decline of over 4% since 1949. After each such instance, the S&P 500 gained more than 10% during the next 2 months historically.
V-shaped recovery is a “fantasy”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell 2.3%.
Stan Druckenmiller said the risk-reward for equities is at its worst and the government stimulus programs won’t be enough.
“I pray I’m wrong on this, but I just think that the V-out is a fantasy,” said the legendary hedge fund manager despite the S&P 500 Index rallying about 30% since its March low.
About the stimulus program, the former chief strategist for George Soros said,
“It was basically a combination of transfer payments to individuals, basically paying them more not to work than to work … and a bunch of payments to zombie companies to keep them alive.”
Amidst this Republican senator introduced a bill allowing President Trump to impose sanctions on China if Beijing “fails to cooperate and provide a full accounting of the events leading up to the outbreak” of the coronavirus.
In other news, PNC is selling its 22% stake worth $17 billion in the world’s largest money manager, Blackrock.
Bitcoin up over 130% Since March Low
Meanwhile, the Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% to 99.9 along with gold which climbed 0.5% to $1,705.80 an ounce.
Bitcoin is currently in the green above $9,050.
— Arcane Research (@ArcaneResearch) May 13, 2020
But trader BitBit says, now that the halving is over, “Bitcoin will follow,” stocks.
Interestingly, the ongoing environment of quantitative easing has been historically positive for the digital asset’s price. During the November 2010 QE program, BTC price appreciated 3900% and then 9900% during the QE of Sept. 2012.
In 2020, Bitcoin’s price is up over 21% YTD and 131% from its March low.
The US market, however, started edging higher as investors await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about monetary policy outlook. It’s to be seen how the bitcoin market will react.