Why Isn’t Bitcoin Breaking Above $12,000?
Bitcoin hasn’t been doing anything new. Just like the past three weeks, we are back to moving upwards to mark a green start of the week. However, ‘real’ volume is really low at just about $1 billion.
Over the weekend, BTC/USD went down under $11,400 and has now made its way back above $11,800. Nothing the market hasn’t already seen several times in August. With the last week of the month in, it’s to be seen if we will make a repeat of, breaking above $12k only to crash back down, or something different would happen before we move onto the last month of this quarter.
According to trader Don Alt, “$11000 remains the main draw.”
“Still pretty clean, price keeps retesting resistance on the way down. Once one of these actually gets broken, I think there is a good chance $12100 gets tested again, I wouldn't bet on that happening though,” he said.
It’s Time to Range
Bulls, however, remain strong with BTC not breaking below $11,000 this month, except on August 2nd right after breaching the $12,000 level for the first time in a year. As we reported, the last time bitcoin breached these levels; it took less than a month to make a new ATH.
Bitcoin’s uptrend that started ever since the critical break of $10,500, “remains technically intact,” according to the technical analyst, Crypto Yoda. He said, “it is to be expected that we are currently trading in consolidation before uptrend resumption,” as bulls need to protect the last low around $11,100.
In case we drop below this level, the market would enter a trendless phase with a key level of interest around $10,500.
“There are, however reasons to believe that we may be in the process of morphing into a trading range,” he added.
August started around $11,300, and we are about 4.4% up this month. The close of the last week was also the prior resistance that held for multiple years, and now this level $11,685 is holding as support so far, noted trader Josh Rager.
“If the daily can stay above $10,500 and weekly about $11,500 – should be a continuation to upside,” he added.
Money is Flowing In
While the bitcoin market has been pretty uneventful for the past few days, we are seeing some interesting signs of accumulation and new money entering the market.
“Smart money net short new all-time-high. Retail net long new all-time-high,” reveals the CME COT report for the week ending August 18.
— skew (@skewdotcom) August 24, 2020
Retailers surely don't care as the number of addresses with a holding period of fewer than 30 days, classified as “traders,” has increased in the last two months to reach a 12-month high at 3.12 million addresses that are holding, in total, 1.94 million BTC.
“New Money has been flowing into Bitcoin,” states IntoTheBlock about this development.
Interestingly, those addresses with a balance of over 1,000 BTC, worth more than $10 million, have also hit a new record high. This means whales are just as invested in accumulating BTC as the retail.
A significant trend seen in the market is the capital flight, with over $50 billion of crypto moved from China-based digital wallets to other parts of the world in the last year. According to Chainalysis, it is possible Chinese investors are transferring more money than allowed — Chinese citizens can only buy up to $50,000 of foreign currency a year — out of the country.
Economic turmoil could have prompted this capital flight as the yuan has been losing its value, the same as equities.
These crypto holders are using the stablecoin Tether (USDT) to move their money — more than $18 billion worth of USDT has moved from East Asia addresses, but not all of this is capital flight.
“Cryptocurrency could be picking up some of the slack,” the report said.
Part of this activity could also be China-based miners converting their newly minted BTC into Tether and sending them to international exchanges to trade during the period of high volatility.