Will Bitcoin Break the Streak? Historically, Red November Always Leads to Losses in December

With just one day left to end November, Bitcoin needs to turn 6.4% losses in the month to profit as it hovers around $58k while Ether surpasses $4,640.


Bitcoin is all set to end November at a red note, recording 6.4% losses in the month.

Meanwhile, the leading cryptocurrency’s year-to-date return is above 98% compared to Ether’s more than 500% gains. While Ether managed to be green this month, it has been barely at 6%.

As of writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $58k and on an uptrend after hitting nearly $59k on Monday. Ether meanwhile went on to surpass $4,640 on Tuesday.

Much like Bitcoin, the leading global oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also noted negative returns at -9.33% while up 61.56% YTD. Gold is barely holding on to its 0.13% gains this month while the US dollar jumped 2.11%, more than SPX’s 1.08% gains, according to Skew.

Coming back to the trillion-dollar leading cryptocurrency, historically, there has been twice that Bitcoin was red in November 2018 and 2019. And both the times, December was also a red one but of significantly less magnitude.

In 2018, a negative 45.3% performance in November led to -7.1% in December, and the following year, the losses were 19.5% and 5.1%, respectively.

But that was a bear market, and while many are fearful that we are entering the bear market, not everyone is convinced yet.

Additionally, green November has always resulted in a subsequent green month except for 2014 when it posted an 11.1% upside resulting in a loss of 16.6% in that December.

Now it remains to be seen if we break the streak or history ends up repeating itself.

For now, BTC is holding up just alright while ETH and BNB have found strength and are leading the market, while AVAX, which was the top performer until a few days ago, has taken quite the beating. BNB 0.28% BNB / USD BNBUSD $ 324.46
$0.910.28%
Volume 1.3 b Change $0.91 Open $324.46 Circulating 161.34 m Market Cap 52.35 b
7 mon SEC Rejects Another Spot Bitcoin ETF, Binance Announces New System to Remove BNB from Circulation 7 mon BitMEX Launches BMEX Token for Active Users, US Not Eligible for Airdrop 7 mon Crypto Outliers: Terra (LUNA) Amasses $16.9 Bln & Surpass BSC, Avalanche (AVAX) Aims for 1 Million Daily Transactions
AVAX 3.69% Avalanche / USD AVAXUSD $ 28.90
$1.073.69%
Volume 1.01 b Change $1.07 Open $28.90 Circulating 284.48 m Market Cap 8.22 b
7 mon Coinbase Predicts Substantial Growth of Newer L1 Chains & Institutionalization of Regulated DeFi 7 mon StarkWare Proposes to Deploy Aave on its ZK-Rollup L2 StarkNet 7 mon Bitcoin Aims for $50k Ahead of Low-Liquidity Holiday Season as Girls Who Code Refuse to “Miss Out” on Crypto

According to Delphi Digital, the DVOL index, which measures implied volatility (IV) on a 30-day forward basis, has gone down in recent days.

IV is a measure of market uncertainty, and when things get dicey, it tends to rise while it usually falls when things look unidirectional.

“Fatter, higher tails towards the left side implies puts are getting more expensive as participants turn their focus towards hedging spot or speculating on further downside,” it noted. “All in all, the market doesn’t look too hot here, but taking the long view, we believe any near-term downside volatility will wind up being rather short-lived.”

The first ten days are the focus right now, with the majority of the gains recorded by Bitcoin during this period of every month.

And with the last day of November here, risk asset investors are most concerned about the new Covid variant Omicron and rising rates and inflation. But the good thing, as Jeff Dorman, CIO at Arca, says, “they both can't be true” due to them being offsetting forces.

“Tapering and the many hurdles ahead do not mean “end of the bull market,” yet hurdles do make it harder to push higher. Upwards & bumpy. That's my view, which I've been hammering for quite a while. This is a great environment for good short-term traders,” commented trader and economist Alex Kruger.

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