Will US Mid-Terms Elections Affect Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Prices?
The voting cycle in the US is unique. Every two years, the United States’ citizens go to the ballot to vote for a new president or local leader in their states. These two events usually occur two years apart. In November 2016, the presidential election took place with Donald Trump winning the election.
Two years later on November 6, 2018, Americans are headed to the ballot once more to choose leaders of the House of Representatives, Governorships, and the Senate. There are also many other state and local positions which are on the ballot.
The Effect On Crypto
The midterms will be contested between the Democratic and Republican party. Thus, it is safe to assume that each party’s voter base will ask for time off work to go and cast their vote. It is safe to assume that crypto traders will also be casting their votes. On average, the voter turnout is expected to be around 60% based on the voters that turned up in 2016. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that a huge chunk of crypto traders in the US will not be available for trading. On November 6, this could mean that the trading volumes will drop by a significant amount.
When the crypto traders based in the US close their trading activities to take part in the democratic process, it will mean they close their long and short positions. This will be the case in exchanges such as Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Binance, where Americans account for a significant chunk of all traders.
With this reality, it could lead to a situation that was predicted by the CEO of BitMEX on trading volume. The CEO predicted the bear market conditions could last for about 18 months because of depressed volumes on exchanges.
According to him, he was basing his prediction on what he had seen in the part. He claimed that he began trading in Bitcoin in 2013 when the prices climbed from just $250 to reach $1300. From there, he saw a bear market that started in 2014 and went into 2015. At the time, the prices and volumes crashed, which made it hard to make anything meaningful in the crypto world.
Effect On BTC And Crypto After The Election
Many incumbents are expected to lose in the election this year’s, the electorate will get new leaders who either support or oppose the blockchain and crypto. Thus, it is expected that massive change will be seen in the Senate, Congress, and local elections such as those for the Governor posts. All of these are crucial leaders in determining the direction that the US takes in regards to the crypto and associated technology.
Nobody is sure what to expect out of this election. However, there is little doubt that volumes will deep on the material Election Day. After that, the crypto world will have to hold their breath and see what the elected leaders do about crypto and the blockchain.