Wrapping Up Q2 2019: Bitcoin Futures & Institutions Thriving while XLM & XRP Emerge as Worst Performers
- Bitcoin ends Q2 at below $11k and a projection for $100k
- While Chainlink beats BNB to become the winner, Stellar is the loser followed by XRP & IOTA
- Bitcoin: Retail Vs Institutions, BitMEX playing an integral role
- Tether alternatives can’t catch up to it
We have officially ended the quarter 2nd of 2019 at a bullish note.
Bitcoin entered July at about $10,700.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin hash rate reached its all-time high with price projections going as high as over $100,000 for BTC price.
As Skew market puts is,
“A $100k dollar price would mean $5bln+ of monthly supply coming from mining and $2.5bln+ next year for halving. That's a lot of bitcoins to sell!.”
The US-China trade war, that drove BTC prices higher now seem to have taken a positive turn but its too soon to say how positive the outcome would be. However, it didn’t had any effect on BTC price.
In terms of macro factors, The Fed and ECB have pivoted dovish in June while 40% of sovereign debt globally now have negative yield.
During this period, Gold and Bitcoin both surged.
An important development was made by Facebook that announce its stablecoin called Libra that could help the crypto market legitimize.
Bitcoin: Retail Vs Institutions
The futures markets of Bitcoin are on an upward slope across exchanges with December contracts trading at about 4.5% premium to spot. In Q1, futures curve was backward sloping due to credit risk and lending activity.
Bitcoin futures on CME set two consecutive records, $1.5 billion traded on each day. Open interest in June doubled to $400 million. Things would get further interesting when ICE-led Bakt will start testing its physically delivered BTC future contracts in July.
This is the reason the Q2 rally doesn’t look anything like of 2017. Apart from the institutions’ engagement, google trend for Bitcoin globally at just 25% of 2017’s peak and same is the case for tweets, which are standards to gauge retail interest.
BitMEX Playing an Integral Role
However, with BitMEX the situation is different as it is thriving with both retail and institutions. The platform traded $1 trillion of derivatives contracts over the last year.
Additionally, a new daily volume record was set for the perpetual swap of $15 billion in June while open interest touched $1 billion.
The role of BitMEX in the market is hard to ignore when the bitcoin price peaking corresponds with the number of connected users on the platform.
The Winners & Losers
When it comes to altcoins, Ether has been lagging but still managed to achieve over 100% returns in Q2 as well as YTD as IEOs replace ICOs that rather boosted Binance’s BNB.
This is why Binance Coin is a runner up when it comes to 2019 returns, gaining 84 percent in Q2. BNB is topped by Chainlink which enjoyed a monster rally registering 630% gains in second quarter and a whopping 1,200% return in H1 2019.
Litecoin followed BNB with 316% return in 2019, all thanks to its upcoming halving event in August this year, while in Q2, it is up by 108%.
When it comes to worst performers, Stellar has emerged as the winner or to be aptly put a loser. Despite other digital assets seeing monstrous gains, XLM went negative in both Q2 and overall 2019 returns by 4 and 5 percent respectively.
Though not in the negative, XRP and IOTA are still down the list with both recording 13% returns YTD and about 25% in Q2.
The total market meanwhile saw an increase of 82% and 151% in H1 2019.
Tether Alternatives Can’t Catch Up To It
Coming onto the stablecoins, the market cap of USDT doubled this year while the US dollar pegged digital currency maintained its dominance in the market. This is due to the “regulated” alternatives having a hard time catching up that has their shares plunging this year, though with Libra’s entry things may change.
Bitfinex launching its own token LEO also help bringing the confidence back in Tether after the fiasco of every USD token not being backed by 1 dollar.